The latest estimates for the UK Claimant Count Change show some significant changes in employment and unemployment rates over recent months. Despite some declines, there has been some overall improvement in the market.
Employment and Unemployment
The number of registered employees in the UK fell by 32,000 (0.1%) between October and November 2024. However, this number was up by 95,000 (0.3%) compared to the previous year (November 2023).
In September-November 2024, the number of registered employees fell by 11,000 (0.0%) quarter-on-quarter, but was up by 134,000 (0.4%) compared to the same period last year.
On the other hand, the employment rate for people aged 16-64 was estimated at 74.8% in September-November 2024. The rate has not changed significantly compared to last year, but has seen a slight decline in the last quarter.
Unemployment and economic inactivity
The UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over was 4.4% between September and November 2024, higher than the rates last year and the last quarter.
The economic inactivity rate, which includes people who are neither working nor looking for work, was estimated at 21.6% in the same period. Although high, the rate was slightly down on the same period last year.
Job claims and vacancies
The number of people claiming unemployment in the UK rose slightly in December 2024, with a total of 1.744 million claims.
As for job vacancies, the number fell by 24,000 compared to the previous quarter, bringing the total to 812,000 in October to December 2024.
We continue to improve the quality of the LFS, building on our work to date. This has resulted in an increase in interviews from 44,238 in July-September 2023 to 59,139 in July-September 2024.
Economic earnings and growth in UK
On the other hand, the annual wage growth in the UK was 5.6% between September and November 2024, for both regular and total earnings. When adjusted for inflation, the annual growth in regular wages was 2.5%, and in total earnings 2.4%.
Labour disputes
The data estimates that the number of working days lost due to labour disputes in the UK was 51,000 in November 2024. This reflects an increase in the economic impacts associated with labour disputes at the national level. These statistics point to some improvements in the UK labour market, but challenges remain, such as high unemployment rates and economic inactivity.
Trends and considerations for comparisons
In this section, we provide some guidance to help users evaluate different sources of employment data and related indicators. These data provide a comprehensive view of changes in the labour market.
Analyzing annual growth rates
Figure 1 shows annual growth rates for a selection of employment indicators. These rates provide a more stable and longer-term view of changes in the labour market. For comparison between different sources, annual growth is an effective tool for analyzing long-term trends.
Labor Force Survey and Labor Force Jobs Survey
The Labor Force Survey (LFS) is a household survey. While the Labor Force Jobs Survey (WFJ) is based mainly on business surveys of employee jobs, and also includes self-employed jobs. The Labor Force Survey is used to provide comprehensive data on different jobs in the economy.
Real Time Indicators (RTI) Data
Real Time Indicators (RTI) are derived from administrative tax records. They cover only salaried employees. RTI data is collected to provide an accurate picture of employment and wages based on official records.
Use of three-month averages in the comparison
In this analysis, three-month averages for RTI salaried employees have been used. These averages allow for accurate comparisons between different data sets, and provide a clear picture of monthly trends. This method is essential for providing reliable analysis in cases of small monthly changes.
Publishing labour force employment data
UK labour force employment data is published for March, June, September and December. To make comparisons clear, these data are plotted against the middle month of the selected time period. For example, September data is plotted against August to October. This method helps to illustrate trends more accurately, and reflects monthly changes more clearly.
There have been ongoing challenges in assessing the consistency of these statistics in recent months. Annual growth has ranged from 0.4% for salaried employees to 1.2% for LFS employees, for the most recent datasets available. Annual growth in the most recent RTI measures has continued to slow. Estimates from the LFS are still affected by increased volatility and base effects, as we compare them to periods of low response rates.
As we have shown in our previous labour market surveys, the longer-term consistency between the RTI and WFJ, when looking at year-on-year change, suggests that these sources are likely to provide more reliable estimates of employment, particularly for employed people. These sources continue to suggest that we have seen a sustained slowdown in employment growth over the past year. The RTI and WFJ also show less volatility than the FFS over the same period.
Despite these consistency challenges, the LFS remains the only source of data on unemployment, economic inactivity and self-employment, and provides a range of details that can only be obtained from the LFS.
