EUR/USD Technical analysis. The EUR/USD pair is trading near important resistance levels, amid noticeable changes in market risk appetite following the stabilization of the US dollar index and weak European growth data. With the New York session entering, clear signs of decisive price action are emerging that could determine the pair’s trajectory in the coming hours.
EUR/USD Analysis: Technical Overview
The EUR/USD pair continues to fluctuate within a short-term ascending channel on the hourly chart, where we are witnessing repeated breaks above the moving averages, with strong support from the ascending trend line. This reflects moderate buying momentum supported by the euro’s movements, despite the prevailing caution ahead of the release of important US data.
Technical Indicators Analysis:
Moving Averages: The price is above the short-term moving averages (20, 50, and 100), indicating a current uptrend.
MACD: The MACD indicator continues its positive momentum with a bullish crossover above the zero line, supporting upside opportunities.
Stochastic: Stochastic has risen towards the overbought zone near 70–80, which could later indicate a short correction before the trend continues.
Expected Scenarios for the EUR/USD
Positive Scenario:
Continued trading above 1.1243 enhances the possibility of a rise towards 1.1278. If it is successfully broken, the pair may target 1.1319 as its next target.
Negative Scenario:
If the price fails to hold above 1.1243 and drops below 1.1234 again, a downward correction may begin targeting 1.1205 and then 1.1182, which represent important short-term support.
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | EURUSD |
| 1.13433 | 1.13187 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.13733 | First support: 1.12832 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance: 1.14000 | Second support: 1.12532 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.13187 | 1.13433 | Stop Loss (SL) |
EURUSD is showing positive signs with each correction, and confirming a hold above 1.1243 could gradually return the pair to the resistance levels of 1.1278 and 1.1319. However, it is advisable to monitor the movements of the US dollar after the FOMC minutes, as they may strongly influence the overall trend.
Key Economic Data Today – Tuesday, May 21, 2025:
- 🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes – 9:00 PM Mecca Time.
- 🇪🇺 European Economic Sentiment (ZEW) – Released this morning with somewhat weak results, reducing the euro’s momentum.
