EUR/USD Technical analysis. The EUR/USD pair is experiencing volatility after a strong upward trend last week, supported by a weaker dollar and traders’ anticipation of important US and European data this week. The market currently focuses on breaking through technical resistance areas and determining whether the pair will continue its upward momentum or start forming a temporary corrective top.
EUR/USD Analysis: Technical Overview
On the H1 chart, we notice that the pair was moving within an ascending channel but began to slow down near the 1.1386 and 1.1417 levels, indicating the potential for strong resistance. The price is currently consolidating above the pivotal support at 1.1328, supporting the possibility of remaining in the uptrend in the short term.
Technical Indicators Analysis:
- Moving Averages: The price is above the 50, 100, and 200 moving averages, reinforcing the uptrend, with the 50-day EMA remaining an active support line.
- MACD: A positive crossover is appearing above the zero line, but with smaller bands, indicating a decline in momentum.
- Stochastic: Shows a bullish crossover from moderate levels.
Expected Scenarios for the EUR/USD
Positive Scenario:
- If the price stabilizes above 1.1328 and successfully breaks 1.1386, we may see a target of 1.1417, followed by 1.1460 as the next major resistance level.
- Any support area below the current price represents buying opportunities on the downside, provided 1.1280 is not breached.
Negative Scenario:
- If the 1.1328 support is broken with a strong candle and closes below it, the pair may enter a correction towards 1.1280. If this level is broken, 1.1245 will become a potential target for selling pressure.
- A break of 1.1245 ends the positive outlook in the short term.
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | EURUSD |
| 1.12944 | 1.12722 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.13219 | First support: 1.12415 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance: 1.13500 | Second support: 1.12100 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.12722 | 1.12944 | Stop Loss (SL) |
The EUR/USD pair remains within a stable upward trend as long as it maintains the support at 1.1328, but momentum indicators point to temporary weakness and a limited potential correction. The positive outlook remains dominant unless 1.1280 is broken. We recommend monitoring price action near 1.1386 and 1.1417 with caution, while following today’s news.
- Today’s influential economic news – May 30, 2025:
- US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (3:30 PM Mecca Time): This is one of the most important inflation indicators monitored by the US Federal Reserve and may have a direct impact on dollar movements.
- European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech at 5:00 PM Mecca Time. Analysts expect her to hint at the monetary policy stance, which could trigger volatility in the euro’s movement.
