What is the trend of the EUR/USD? The EUR/USD pair has witnessed sideways movements after a downward movement that lasted for several days, interspersed with failed attempts to rise above resistance levels, supported by a technical correction and some decline in the dollar’s strength. By the beginning of May, mixed signals emerged from technical indicators, presenting traders with two possible scenarios for the upcoming price action.
What is the trend of the EUR/USD? : Technical Overview
- The pair is currently trading in a consolidation range between 1.1340 as resistance and 1.1280 as pivotal support.
- The recent movement indicates an attempt to break out of the downward trend, but momentum remains limited.
- Trading is confined below the major moving averages, indicating continued short-term selling pressure.
Indicator Analysis:
- The MACD remains in negative territory, with a slight bullish crossover, reflecting the beginning of weak positive momentum.
- The Stochastic Oscillator is showing overbought conditions after the recent price rise, suggesting a possible downward correction.
- The short-term averages (10 and 20) remain below the long-term average (50), supporting the downward trend, despite temporary consolidation.
Technical Zones:
- 1.1280 – 1.1265: Very strong support, representing the bottom of previous correction attempts. Breaking it confirms a return to the downward path and targets deeper levels.
- 1.1310 – 1.1340: This area currently represents moving resistance and has formed a trading ceiling for the past three days. Continued trading below it puts pressure on the pair.
- 1.1358 – 1.1360: If it is broken steadily, this is a sign of buyers’ intent to push the price towards 1.1410 as the first correction target.
What is the trend of the EUR/USD? Trading Scenarios:
Possible Bullish Scenario:
- A break above the 1.1340 level with an hourly candlestick closing above it will push the pair towards 1.1358 and then 1.1380 as immediate targets.
Possible Bearish Scenario:
- If it fails to hold above 1.1310, the pair may return to decline towards 1.1280 and then 1.1265.
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | EURUSD |
| 1.13369 | 1.13141 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.13680 | First support: 1.12840 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance: 1.13980 | Second support: 1.12540 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.13141 | 1.13369 | Stop Loss (SL) |
Despite recovery attempts, the EUR/USD pair remains under the influence of a downtrend, and the most likely scenario currently is a retest of the 1.1280 support level unless 1.1340 is breached with a clear close. Traders need technical confirmation before making a buy or sell decision, while monitoring the upcoming US data releases this week.
Economic news that could impact this week (not yet released):
- US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) (Friday).
- European PMI data (Thursday).
- Any new statements from the US Federal Reserve will remain a potential pressure factor.
