The EUR/USD pair continues to exhibit cautious volatility as markets await the upcoming US Federal Reserve decisions, amid stable inflation data.
The euro had risen strongly the previous week, supported by strong German data and market expectations of a European interest rate hold. However, it has now begun to decline after failing to breach the technical resistance at 1.1400.
Today, markets are preparing for important US data, which increases pressure on the pair and maintains caution
Technical Indicator Analysis
Moving Averages
The price has broken the 50-day moving average and is approaching the 100-day moving average.
A bearish crossover is imminent if the pressure continues
MACD
Negative momentum is increasing with the widening of the negative bars.
Both lines are in a bearish crossover
Stochastic
Clearly declining and approaching the 20-day area.
It has not yet reached oversold territory, leaving room for further declines.
Possible Scenarios
Bullish Scenario
A rebound from 1.1324 may retest 1.1376, but without a break of 1.1400, the uptrend will not resume strongly
Bearish Scenario
a break of 1.1324 will lead to 1.1294 and then 1.1260, especially if US data is positive
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | EURUSD |
| 1.13766 | 1.13294 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.14024 | First support: 1.13039 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance: 1.14272 | Second support: 1.12839 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.13294 | 1.13766 | Stop Loss (SL) |
The EUR/USD pair has entered a logical technical correction phase after a failed breakout of the 1.1402 resistance level.
The current decline may continue to at least 1.1294, with the possibility of further declines if these levels are broken amid a strengthening dollar.
From an expert perspective, it is preferable to wait for a breakout of the 1.1324 support level to confirm the downtrend, or watch for a potential rebound for a short-term entry opportunity.
