The chart of the EURUSD pair on the H1 timeframe shows that the pair is in a consolidation phase after a strong downward movement, followed by an attempt at an upward rebound. The chart shows key support and resistance levels, as well as signals from technical indicators such as MACD and Stochastic Oscillators, which give an impression of the strength of momentum and potential price direction.
Market Overview
- General Trend: The pair began to decline after testing strong resistance levels, but found support at 1.0824, a key support level, which helped it rebound upwards.
- Current Momentum: The pair is moving within a narrow consolidation range (blue rectangle) after the downward correction, indicating a consolidation phase or retest of resistance before determining the next trend.
- Influential News:
- Release of influential economic data such as the European CPI and US retail sales, which could directly impact the pair’s movement.
- Policies of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which influence the yield spread between the euro and the dollar.
Technical Indicators Analysis
- Moving Averages
- The blue moving average (50): Shows dynamic resistance after the downside breakout in previous sessions, but is now acting as support for price action.
- The red moving average (200): Represents key moving resistance at 1.0859, and a breakout could push the price further upward.
- MACD Indicator
- The negative wave on the MACD indicator has begun to fade, indicating a weakening downtrend.
- The fast line is approaching its crossover from the slow line, a bullish signal that supports the possibility of continuing the rally.
- Stochastic Indicator
- The indicator shows a high reading at 83.65, indicating that the price has entered the overbought zone. Therefore, there may be a possibility of a slight downward correction before resuming the rally.
Possible Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Currently Most Likely)
- If the price manages to stabilize above 1.0900 and clearly breach 1.0946, we may witness an upward wave towards 1.0975–1.1000.
- Support for this scenario comes from positive signals on the MACD and trading above the moving averages.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative)
- If it fails to surpass 1.0900, we may witness a return to testing 1.0859. If it fails, the pair may target 1.0824 and then 1.0799.
- This scenario will be driven by a return of selling pressure and the presence of the Stochastic in the overbought zone.
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | EURUSD |
| 1.09100 | 1.08600 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.09400 | First support: 1.08300 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance: 1.09700 | Second support: 1.08000 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.08600 | 1.09100 | Stop Loss (SL) |
General Trend: Neutral to Upward, but there are resistance levels that must be surpassed to confirm the continued rise.
Best Trading Strategy:
- Wait for a clear breakout of 1.0900 – 1.0946 to enter long positions with targets at 1.0975 – 1.1000.
- In the event of a rejection at resistance, short-term selling opportunities can be sought by targeting 1.0859 – 1.0824.
Monitor economic news, as any statement from the US Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank could lead to rapid movements in the pair.
