EURUSD Analysis. The EUR/USD pair appears to be regaining some momentum at the start of today’s sessions after a period of sideways volatility, driven by a weakening US dollar against the backdrop of weak recent US economic data. With the release of US jobs reports approaching, the market is taking a wait-and-see stance, giving the Euro a chance to catch its breath.
EURUSD Analysis: Technical Overview
The pair is currently trading near 1.1368 after successfully breaking the 1.1341 resistance level and consolidating above it. The general trend on the H1 timeframe is positive, with a series of rising lows and solid support, but the pair remains below the most important resistance at 1.1408, which represents the strongest psychological barrier.
Technical Indicators Analysis:
- Moving Averages: The price is moving above the 50 and 100 moving averages, reflecting improved upward momentum.
- MACD Indicator: A positive crossover is appearing with the histogram moving upward.
- Stochastic: On its way up from a medium-term range, supporting the continuation of the positive movement in the short term.
Bullish scenario:
If the price holds above 1.1368, the price may target 1.1389 as a first target, followed by 1.1408 as a pivotal resistance level. Any break above this level could open the way to 1.1440.
The 1.1368 and 1.1389 areas represent short-term resistance levels that could be tested before any new breakthrough.
Bearish scenario:
If the price returns below 1.1341 again, we may witness a decline to test the support level of 1.1316. A break below this level would indicate the return of selling pressure, and we may witness a retest of 1.1284, which represents a strong support level.
The 1.1316 level is currently acting as a balance between buyers and sellers, and a break below it changes the short-term outlook.
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | EURUSD |
| 1.13819 | 1.13643 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.14083 | First support: 1.13413 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance: 1.14383 | Second support: 1.13113 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.13643 | 1.13369 | Stop Loss (SL) |
The euro has moved positively after surpassing minor resistance levels, but has yet to breach the key 1.1408 barrier. The focus now is on the 1.1368 level as a key indicator of bullish momentum. Consolidation above supports the possibility of a continued rise, while a break below 1.1341 could return the price to a sideways or bearish trend.
EURUSD Analysis : Impactful Economic Data This Week:
- US CPI (Thursday, May 9): Inflationary data will directly impact interest rate expectations and, consequently, the dollar.
- Weekly unemployment claims (Thursday): Provides signals about the strength of the US labor market, which impacts the assessment of the dollar’s strength.
- Friday, May 3: The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is one of the most anticipated drivers this week, and will strongly influence the dollar’s trajectory and, consequently, the euro’s movement.
- Comments from Federal Reserve officials may increase the pair’s volatility, especially if they indicate a change in monetary policy.
- Weekly Unemployment Claims (Thursday): These data provide signals regarding the strength of the US labor market, which impacts the assessment of the dollar’s strength.
