EUR/USD. The EUR/USD pair continues to trade in a bearish sideways range, amid clear pressure from the strength of the US dollar during trading during the last week of April and the beginning of May 2025. This performance comes as markets react to the release of important US data in the coming days, increasing traders’ anticipation regarding the pair’s next direction. In this analysis, we will discuss possible price action scenarios and analyze technical indicators, key supports, and resistances to identify optimal entry and exit points.
EUR/USD: Technical Overview
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1326, having encountered strong resistance near the 1.1358 area and failed to break it steadily. The pair is moving below the short- and medium-term moving averages, which have begun to decline again, indicating continued selling pressure. Nearby support levels remain at 1.1300 and then 1.1284, which are key indicators for continuing the downward trend if they are clearly broken.
Technical Indicators Analysis:
- Moving Averages (EMA 20/50/100): The price is moving below all of the averages, supporting short-term selling control.
- MACD: Shows weak momentum, with the histogram fluctuating around zero, reflecting the absence of a clear trend.
- Stochastic: Indicates a positive crossover, but from the oversold zone, which may herald a short-term upward correction attempt.
Bullish Scenario (Short-Term):
If the price can break the 1.1339 resistance level and hold above it, we may witness a rise towards:
- First Target: 1.1358
- Second Target: 1.1368 (previous reversal level)
This area represents strong resistance, and a break above it could open the way for a broader upward wave if accompanied by strong momentum and negative USD data.
Bearish Scenario (Short-Term):
If the support level of 1.1300 is broken and holds below it, the pair may continue its decline towards:
- First Target: 1.1284
- Second Target: 1.1265 (previous low)
Breaking this support will signal the resumption of the downward trend and target the April lows again.
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | EURUSD |
| 1.13369 | 1.13141 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.13680 | First support: 1.12840 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance: 1.13980 | Second support: 1.12540 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.13141 | 1.13369 | Stop Loss (SL) |
The EUR/USD pair is showing signs of anticipation and technical weakness at critical levels, and requires a clear breakout of any of the nearby support or resistance levels to determine its next direction. The bearish scenario remains technically most likely unless 1.1358 is breached and established above it. We advise traders to monitor upcoming US data, which may determine the direction of the trend in the coming days, and to activate stop-loss orders upon any false break of the aforementioned critical levels to ensure professional risk management.
EUR/USD : Impactful Economic Data This Week:
- US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Thursday, May 9): Inflationary data will directly impact interest rate expectations and, consequently, the dollar.
- Weekly Unemployment Claims (Thursday): These data provide signals regarding the strength of the US labor market, which impacts the assessment of the dollar’s strength.
