EUR/USD Technical analysis. The EUR/USD pair witnessed strong attempts at recovery during the week’s sessions, especially with the improvement in risk appetite and the weakness of the US dollar against the backdrop of declining yields. This performance coincided with traders’ anticipation of a set of influential economic data. The current analysis is based on the hourly (H1) chart and relies on popular technical indicators to accurately determine short-term scenarios.
EUR/USD Analysis: Technical Overview
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading above the previous support level of 1.13283 and has formed a series of rising highs and lows that reinforce the bullish potential. The price is breaching the 1.13583 level, which reinforces the positive momentum, but we note that it is approaching an important resistance area at 1.13866.
Technical Indicators Analysis:
- Moving Averages: The 20/50/100 EMA are aligned bullishly, supporting a positive outlook as long as 1.13283 is not breached.
- MACD: Showing a positive crossover above the zero line, supporting the continuation of the uptrend.
- Stochastic: It is in the overbought zone, which may indicate an approaching limited correction before continuing the upward trend.
Expected Scenarios for the EUR/USD
Positive Scenario:
- If the positive momentum continues, a break above 1.13866 could open the way for 1.14065 and then 1.14179, which are important short-term resistance areas.
- Each resistance area represents a psychological barrier for buyers, and any clear break above it increases the likelihood of a resumption of the upward trend.
Negative Scenario:
- A break below 1.13583 could lead to a retest of the support level at 1.13283. A clear candlestick break above this level could push the price towards 1.12872.
- These areas represent potential retracement ranges, and any break above them would change the short-term positive outlook.
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | EURUSD |
| 1.13866 | 1.13538 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.14179 | First support: 1.13225 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance: 1.14300 | Second support: 1.12900 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.13538 | 1.13866 | Stop Loss (SL) |
The EUR/USD pair is moving within a clear ascending channel supported by positive momentum and technical indicators. However, its proximity to the 1.13866 resistance level requires caution for any signs of weakness. The bullish scenario is most likely as long as the price remains above 1.13283, but it is important to monitor today’s US dollar data, which will play a pivotal role in confirming or breaking the current trend.
- Impactful economic data (Friday, May 23, 2025):
- United States: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (4:00 PM Mecca Time).
- Eurozone: No major data releases today, so the pair’s movement will be primarily dependent on the dollar.
