EUR/USD Technical analysis. The EUR/USD pair has been witnessing a significant decline in recent sessions, with bearish sentiment dominating price action amid mixed expectations between US inflation data and Federal Reserve monetary policy. The H1 chart reflects the pair’s attempts to recover after reaching key support levels, reinforcing the importance of close technical monitoring over the coming hours.
EUR/USD Analysis: Technical Overview
The pair is currently trading at 1.1230 after rebounding from support at 1.1190. The price has broken through the 1.1220 resistance and is heading towards testing the 1.1245 barrier, indicating attempts to retest the descending moving averages. However, the overall trend remains under selling pressure as long as it remains below 1.1274.
Prices are affected by global political uncertainty, along with declining risk appetite in European and American markets.
Technical Indicators Analysis:
MACD: Shows a positive crossover with an attempt to rise above the zero line, enhancing the chances of a short-term improvement.
Stochastic: Trading in overbought areas, warning of a possible temporary downward correction if 1.1245 is not successfully breached.
Moving Averages: The price remains below the 200-day moving average on H1, maintaining a cautious outlook until a break above it.
Expected Scenarios for the EUR/USD
Positive Scenario:
If the price succeeds in returning above 1.11500, we may witness an upward attempt targeting the next resistance at 1.11880, an important overlap with the 100-day moving average.
When will this scenario be invalidated?
If the price manages to break above 1.1245 and hold above it, we may witness an upward extension towards 1.1274 and then 1.1295. These areas represent key resistance levels that buyers are anticipating to reposition themselves.
Negative Scenario:
If the pair fails to hold above 1.1220 and selling pressure returns, it may retest the 1.1190 support level. A break above it could pave the way for an additional decline towards 1.1170 and then 1.1150.
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | EURUSD |
| 1.12445 | 1.12201 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.12748 | First support: 1.11910 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance: 1.13048 | Second support: 1.11610 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.12201 | 1.12445 | Stop Loss (SL) |
Despite signs of a temporary recovery, the EUR/USD pair remains under pressure below 1.1274. Buyers need confirmation of a clear breakout to return to the upside, while any break of the 1.1190 support level would return the sellers to control. Traders should focus on the economic data expected this week, which will have a direct impact on the pair’s movements. Economic data impacting
Economic Data Impacting the Euro-Dollar This Week
- US Producer Price Index (PPI) – May 14
- US Unemployment Claims – May 16
These data could reshape the trend, especially if they support the dollar’s strength or raise expectations for a renewed interest rate hike
