May 2025 begins with a clear decline for the EUR/USD pair after breaking key technical support levels, amid mixed economic data in the Eurozone. The US dollar continues to strengthen, driven by positive economic results in the United States in April.
The pair is now approaching a pivotal area that may determine the technical direction for the coming period.
General Technical Outlook for the EUR/USD:
- The general trend for the pair has clearly turned bearish in the short term after breaking the 1.1300 support.
- Moving averages confirm the negative trend.
- The euro is experiencing weak momentum in the absence of strong catalysts, while the dollar is receiving technical support from the US economy.
EUR/USD : Technical Indicator Analysis:
- EMA:
- The price is below all moving averages (50, 100, and 200).
- The 50-day moving average is downward, supporting a continued decline.
- MACD:
- Below the zero line with increasing negative momentum.
- No reversal signals currently appear.
- Stochastic Oscillator:
- Moving within the oversold range (<20), which may indicate a temporary rebound.
- However, there is no confirmation yet of a clear upward breakout.
EUR/USD : Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario (Rebound):
- If the price manages to return above 1.1300 and hold above it, we may witness a limited rebound towards:
o 1.1320
o 1.1335
Expected total upside of no more than 10 pips at the moment
Bearish scenario (likely):
- A continued break of 1.1300 will push the price towards:
o 1.1280
o 1.1265
These are the two most important downside targets for the current period A break of 1.1260 will temporarily disrupt the upward momentum
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | EURUSD |
| 1.13305 | 1.13000 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.13620 | First support: 1.12655 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance: 1.13920 | Second support: 1.12355 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.13000 | 1.13305 | Stop Loss (SL) |
The EUR/USD pair is moving in a steady downward range after breaking the 1.1300 support, and technical and economic momentum appears to be favoring the US dollar. In the absence of supportive data from the Eurozone, the prevailing outlook remains bearish, with cautious anticipation of any surprises in US employment data at the end of the week.
From a technical and economic perspective, any current upside is likely to be a limited correction before the downtrend resumes.
Impactful Economic Data This Week:
Thursday, May 2, 2025
- US Jobless Claims
- Statements from US Federal Reserve Officials
Friday, May 3, 2025
- Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
- Average Wages and the US Unemployment Rate
These data are considered the most influential on the dollar’s movement during the week, determining whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its monetary tightening policy.
