EUR/USD Technical Analysis : The EUR/USD pair experienced significant volatility during April 2025, driven by deteriorating US economic data and rising trade tensions. Confidence in the US dollar weakened as a result of a 0.3% contraction in GDP in the first quarter of the year, a rise in unemployment claims, and a slowdown in job growth. Conversely, the euro benefited from the dollar’s weakness, pushing the pair towards important technical resistance levels.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Technical Overview
- General Trend: The pair is trading in a bearish consolidation range, with failed attempts to break through nearby resistance levels.
- Key Support: 1.1290 – a strong base from which the price has recently rebounded.
- Key Resistance: 1.1380 – a strong resistance level that the price has failed to break in previous attempts.
Technical Indicators Analysis
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Trading near the 50 level, indicating a balance between buying and selling forces, with a slight bias toward selling.
- MACD: Showing a negative crossover, supporting the possibility of continued selling pressure on the pair.
- Moving Averages: The price is trading below the 50- and 100-period moving averages, reinforcing the short-term negative outlook.
Bullish Scenario (Potential Buying)
Hypothesis: This scenario begins if the price succeeds in breaking the resistance level of 1.1342 and holding above it.
- Breaking this level is a positive technical signal that buyers have returned to the market.
- This will target successive resistance levels, starting at 1.1360 and extending to 1.1575.
- Primary support for this scenario is the continued decline in the strength of the US dollar following the release of weak economic data, such as a decline in the ISM manufacturing index and a contraction in GDP.
- Also, rising expectations of a Fed rate cut could support further declines in the dollar, and thus the pair’s rise. Bullish Scenario Invalidation: A price return below 1.1320 would indicate a failure of buyers and a rapid downward rebound could be witnessed.
Bearish Scenario (Possible Selling)
Hypothesis: This scenario predicts a break of the 1.1290 support level and a hold below it.
- A break of this level is a clear signal for the resumption of the downtrend.
- This would trigger a selling wave that could extend to levels such as 1.1250, then 1.1200, and finally 1.1050.
- This scenario is technically supported by the price being below the moving averages, in addition to a negative MACD crossover, and the RSI remaining at neutral, weak levels.
- Economically, any sudden improvement in US employment data (such as a surprise rise in NFP or an unexpected decline in unemployment) could strengthen the dollar and push the pair lower.
Bearish Scenario Invalidation: A return above 1.1320 and a hold above it would indicate that sellers are beginning to lose control.
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | EURUSD |
| 1.13462 | 1.13203 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.13801 | First support: 1.12909 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance: 1.14101 | Second support: 1.12609 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.13203 | 1.13462 | Stop Loss (SL) |
The EUR/USD pair is under selling pressure amid weak US economic data and escalating trade tensions. Technical movements indicate a potential continuation of the decline, especially if the support level at 1.1290 is broken. However, upcoming economic data should be monitored closely, as any positive surprises could change the current trend. Traders are advised to exercise caution and closely monitor economic and political developments before making any trading decisions.
Impactful Economic Data This Week:
Friday, May 3, 2025
- Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
- Average Wages and the US Unemployment Rate
These data are considered the most influential on the dollar’s movement during the week, determining whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its monetary tightening policy.
