EUR/USD Analysis. The EUR/USD pair has been moving volatility in recent hours, affected by a slight wave of weakness in the US dollar at the start of the US session, amid a decline in risk appetite in the market. This comes as investors await the US employment data expected at the end of the week. In this context, the euro is attempting to consolidate above critical technical support levels that may prepare it for a new attempt.
EUR/USD Analysis: Technical Overview
The pair is currently trading near 1.1373 after a strong rebound from the 1.1345 support level, and is attempting to consolidate above the 50-day moving average, with attempts to break through the intraday resistance at 1.1389. The short-term trend remains confined within a narrow ascending channel that began last Friday’s rebound, with good stability above 1.1340.
Technical Indicators Analysis:
- MACD: Showing positive momentum but approaching a weak point, indicating a possible temporary slowdown in the upward movement.
- Stochastic: Trading in neutral zones without oversaturation, allowing for further upward movement if liquidity is available.
- Moving Averages: The price is above the 50-day EMA and the 100-day EMA, giving a conditional bullish bias.
EUR/USD Analysis : Expected Scenarios for the EUR/USD
Positive Scenario
If the price stabilizes above 1.1370 and successfully breaks the 1.1389 resistance, the path will be paved for a test of 1.1408, followed by 1.1440 if the US dollar weakens further during the American session.
Negative Scenario
If the price fails to maintain 1.1370 and drops below 1.1345, it is expected to retest the 1.1316 support level. A break of this level would open the door to a decline to 1.1284.
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | EURUSD |
| 1.13692 | 1.13528 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.13972 | First support: 1.13264 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance: 1.14272 | Second support: 1.12964 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.13528 | 1.13692 | Stop Loss (SL) |
The euro is showing cautious signs of strength against the US dollar, but faces immediate resistance near 1.1390. Holding above 1.1370 is essential for continuing the rise towards 1.1408, while a break of 1.1345 would signal a rapid return of selling pressure. We recommend closely monitoring volatility in the US session, especially with the upcoming release of Federal Reserve statements and economic data.
Impactful Economic Data This Week:
- US CPI (Thursday, May 9): Inflationary data will directly impact interest rate expectations and, consequently, the dollar.
- Weekly unemployment claims (Thursday): Provides signals about the strength of the US labor market, which impacts the assessment of the dollar’s strength.
- Friday, May 3: The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is one of the most anticipated drivers this week, and will strongly influence the dollar’s trajectory and, consequently, the euro’s movement.
- Comments from Federal Reserve officials may increase the pair’s volatility, especially if they indicate a change in monetary policy.
- Weekly Unemployment Claims (Thursday): These data provide signals regarding the strength of the US labor market, which impacts the assessment of the dollar’s strength.
