EUR/USD Analysis. The EUR/USD pair is experiencing strong selling pressure as the dollar continues to dominate the market, pushing the price to break vital support levels. Within a downward-trending technical framework, the pair is showing clear weakness in its attempts at upward correction, which calls for a careful reading of current market levels, especially with important US data expected this week.
EUR/USD Analysis: Technical Overview
The general trend for the EUR/USD pair on the H1 timeframe is clearly bearish, with the price falling below the moving averages (20, 50, and 100). The price is now holding below a pivotal support area that previously acted as a pivot at 1.11160, enhancing the chances of a continued decline unless the resistance level of 1.11500 is broken.
Technical Indicators Analysis:
MACD: Showing a negative crossover with widening red bars, supporting selling momentum.
Stochastic: In the oversold range, but it has not yet given a confirmed reversal signal.
Moving Averages: The price is below all moving averages, reinforcing the downtrend.
EUR/USD Analysis : Expected Scenarios
Positive Scenario:
If the price succeeds in returning above 1.11500, we may witness an upward attempt targeting the next resistance at 1.11880, an important overlap with the 100-day moving average.
When will this scenario be invalidated?
It will be invalidated if the price fails to surpass 1.11500 and remains under pressure below 1.11100.
Negative Scenario:
The downward pressure continues, and a break of the current bottom at 1.11000 will open the way to the next support at 1.10860, and possibly 1.10600 in the short term.
🔹 Next Support Levels:
- 1.11070
- 1.10860
- 1.10600
🔹 Nearby Resistance Levels:
- 1.11360
- 1.11500
- 1.11880
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | EURUSD |
| 1.11200 | 1.10800 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.11500 | First support: 1.10500 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance: 1.11800 | Second support: 1.10200 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.10800 | 1.11200 | Stop Loss (SL) |
Downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair continues, and the market is reacting strongly to the dollar, especially with anticipation of further tightening by the Federal Reserve. A sustained price below 1.11500 reinforces our expectations of continued decline, while a clear break of this barrier could restore hope to buyers. We recommend closely monitoring upcoming data to confirm the upcoming trend.
Economic Data Impacting the Euro-Dollar This Week
- FOMC Officials’ Statements
- US Producer Price Index (PPI) – May 14
- US Unemployment Claims – May 16
These data could reshape the trend, especially if they support the dollar’s strength or raise expectations for a renewed interest rate hike
