US stock futures settled in narrow ranges on Tuesday after a significant decline in the first quarter. This came as investors assessed the risks of a potential recession ahead of US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements on April 2. At 4:10 a.m. ET (09:10 GMT), Dow Jones futures were down 60 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures were largely flat, while Nasdaq 100 futures were up 20 points, or 0.1%.
Economic Concerns Impact US Stock Indexes
Wall Street’s major indexes were under significant pressure in March, and in the first quarter in general. The primary reason for this was concerns that the tariffs expected to be announced by the Trump administration could lead to a contraction in economic activity. Many experts also expect these tariffs to contribute to increased inflation, potentially pushing the US economy into recession.
The S&P 500, one of the leading US market indices, lost about 5% in the first quarter of 2025. The Nasdaq Composite, which includes many technology companies, saw a significant decline of more than 10%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 2% of its value during the same period. However, there were brief inflows into US stocks, which helped bring the Nasdaq back to neutral.
Recession Fears Due to Expected Tariffs
Markets are preparing for the announcement of new tariffs that Trump plans to impose, with the deadline expected to be April 2. These tariffs, dubbed “Deregulation Day,” will also be followed by a 25% increase in tariffs on auto imports starting April 3.
The Likelihood of a US Recession Increases
Press reports have indicated that Trump is considering increasing these tariffs on a group of countries as part of his trade strategy to address what he believes are unfair trade imbalances affecting the United States.
These measures are part of the US president’s strategy to impose further trade restrictions with the aim of reducing the trade deficit with several major countries. Although the goal of these policies is to improve the US’s trade position, concerns are growing about the impact of these tariffs on global trade and various economies.
Goldman Sachs has increased the probability of a US recession to 35%, up from a previous estimate of 20%. This increase is due to expectations that average tariff rates will increase to 15%, which could directly impact economic activity and weaken growth.
The economic impact of these policies could be profound. If tariffs continue to rise, it could lead to a significant decline in domestic investment and international trade, potentially slowing economic growth.
US Economic Data Raises Concerns
Several US economic reports are scheduled for release this week. The US Department of Labor will release the job openings report, one of the most important data points, later this week. This data is a key indicator of the US labor market. Expectations indicate that the number of job openings in February may reach 7.69 million, a slight decrease compared to the previous month.
Attention is also turning to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release next Friday, which will shed light on the state of the US labor market in March. This report is one of the most important economic data that investors await, as it will reflect the overall health of the US economy.
News of major companies in the US markets
In corporate economic news, PVH Corp., which owns Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, experienced strong fourth-quarter performance. The company’s shares rose in premarket trading after its financial results showed earnings and revenue exceeding expectations.
Meanwhile, Progress Software saw a notable rise in premarket trading after reporting strong first-quarter earnings and issuing a positive outlook for the full year. In contrast, other companies such as Nvidia and Tesla experienced significant declines in their performance. Nvidia shares fell 20% in the first quarter, while Tesla shares fell more than 35%.
Geopolitical Tensions Impact Global Markets
Geopolitical tensions continue to impact global markets, especially in light of Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Russian oil. These threats caused a slight decline in oil prices on Tuesday, after hitting a five-week high. This has caused markets to worry about the impact of these tariffs on global prices. On the other hand, gold prices hit an all-time high on Tuesday, as investors sought the yellow metal as a safe haven amid market uncertainty. Gold prices have risen significantly in recent sessions, reaching new record highs.
Global Market Outlook
US and global markets will remain on edge over the coming days and weeks. Trump’s tariff announcements are expected to further pressure the US and global economy. Meanwhile, the impact of these policies on global oil and gold prices remains a major concern.
Given the current situation, global markets will likely continue to fluctuate between recession fears and concerns over the repercussions of US trade policy. Markets appear likely to enter a period of significant volatility as trade and economic tensions persist on the international scene.
