The world is witnessing several political and economic developments that are expected to have a significant impact on global markets. Several crucial events in the coming weeks will have repercussions on prices, trade relations, and monetary policy decisions. Markets should be watching closely next week, and among the most important events are:
Trump’s Tariff Announcement on April 2
Markets are awaiting US President Donald Trump’s announcement on April 2 regarding new tariffs, an event described by Bloomberg as “Liberation Day.” While Trump had previously threatened to impose broad tariffs on all countries, reports indicate that he may announce more targeted tariffs, which could have a direct impact on global trade.
Purchasing Managers’ Indices and the Future of Economic Activity
Among the economic indicators to watch this week is the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which tracks business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. After declining slightly last month to 51.6, the index is expected to fall to 51.5 in March. This reading indicates limited growth, as a reading above 50 indicates economic expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Call for Early Elections in Canada
In addition, the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key measure of inflation in the United States, will occur. Last week, the Federal Reserve approved monetary policies that point to rising inflation and slowing economic growth. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell affirmed that the US economy is “overall strong,” reflecting the optimistic outlook for the US economy over the long term.
Canada has recently witnessed an escalation of tensions with the United States, due to US threats to impose additional tariffs. In this context, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called for an early election on April 28, believing this is the right time to secure a strong mandate to confront trade threats from the US administration. This call will have significant repercussions for relations between Canada and the United States if the election proceeds as planned.
This call comes at a sensitive time, as Trump returned to the White House earlier this year and postponed the imposition of a 25% tariff on Canada. He also imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, further escalating tensions between the two countries. In response, Canada imposed retaliatory trade measures in an attempt to demand that Washington respect the trade agreement between the two countries.
Ceasefire Talks in Ukraine
The conflict in Ukraine continues to impact global markets, especially in light of the peace talks between the United States and Russia. This week, officials from both countries are meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss a possible ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea, which could help ease tensions in the region.
CEOs Meet with the Chinese President
These political shifts will significantly impact the Canadian market. Any escalation in the trade dispute could affect Canada’s economic growth and, in turn, influence oil and commodity markets.
These talks will help de-escalate the conflict and open the way for increased shipping flows in the region, particularly for oil and natural gas. However, many officials in some European countries remain skeptical that Russian President Vladimir Putin will back down on his demands.
If these talks materialize, they will contribute to reducing volatility in energy markets, as this would mean greater stability in oil and natural gas supply flows from the region. Therefore, developments in these talks should be closely monitored.
A number of global CEOs are expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week at the China Development Forum. Among those expected to attend are Apple CEO Tim Cook, Qualcomm’s Cristiano Amon, AstraZeneca’s Pascal Soriot, and Saudi Aramco’s Amin Nasser. This meeting comes at a sensitive time as China faces escalating US tariffs.
Despite trade tensions between the two countries, China has expressed its desire to boost its foreign investment, demonstrating an effort to mitigate the repercussions of the trade war with the United States.
In conclusion, global markets are currently experiencing a state of anticipation, with many challenges looming. From tariffs that could impact trade relations to peace talks in Ukraine, markets remain alert for any new developments. Each of these events will impact prices and economic trends, requiring close monitoring to ensure informed investment decisions.
