Gold prices continued to rally on Tuesday, hitting an all-time high of $3,149 an ounce, with investors positioned on the defensive ahead of major U.S. policy announcements. The market is largely focused on the expected-for-tat tariff offering by the White House on Wednesday, an event that will spur demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
Bullion has gained more than 11% since the start of the year, supported by a combination of factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, strong buying from central banks, and global macroeconomic uncertainty.
Markets now estimate interest rate cuts of 63 basis points by the end of 2025, with the first move expected in July.
Central banks and ETF flows support bullish outlook Besides speculative flows, actual demand remains strong. Central banks – especially in emerging markets – continued to accumulate gold reserves, consolidating the upward momentum.
In addition, inflows into gold-backed traded funds (ETFs) have rebounded in recent weeks, reversing previous outflows and reflecting renewed institutional interest.
The dollar’s stability below key technical resistance and continued concerns about global trade dynamics have also contributed to increasing bullish pressure on gold. “With the US dollar weakening and Treasury yields stabilizing, gold’s lesser resistance trajectory remains bullish,” Rong said.
Gold prices fell slightly after touching a new record high of $3,149, currently trading around $3,126.98 on the four-hour chart. Despite the decline, the uptrend remains within a respected upward channel.
The latest move looks more like a respite than a reversal, especially given the strong bullish momentum that led prices to $3,116. This level is now forming immediate support, followed by a more solid low near USD$3,085 – an area that was previously a breakout point.
Gold prices hit record highs amid economic anxiety
Record gold rally extended to an all-time high on Tuesday, buoyed by safe-haven demand, as investors braced for U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned announcement on-for-tat tariffs.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,131.56 an ounce at 09:14 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,148.88 earlier.
U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $3,159.10. “Trump’s comments on tariffs and his increasingly volatile stance on Russia’s war against Ukraine are proving to be a total mess leading to new record gold prices,” said Adrian Ash, head of research at online platform Bullion Vault, surpassing even the WFID-19 pandemic five years ago.
Trump said on Sunday that the-for-tat tariffs to be announced on Wednesday would cover all countries, not a limited number.
Goldman Sachs on Monday raised the probability of a recession in the United States from 20% to 35%, and said it expects further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as Trump’s tariffs affect the global economy and destabilize financial markets.
Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation, has risen more than 15% this year. Non-yielding alloys also tend to perform well in a low interest rate environment.
Alexander Zumpvi, a trader of precious metals at Heraus Metals Germany, said: “The market is watching on April 2 closely for further economic indicators that may influence the Fed’s policy decisions. If the interest rate cuts are confirmed, it will provide additional support to gold’s bullish trajectory.”
One-third of central banks plan to increase gold reserves
Nearly a third of the world’s central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in 2025, driven by financial market concerns and growing economic risks, the World Gold Council announced on Tuesday.
The board revealed in a report that 29% of central banks intend to buy gold this year to rebalance reserves to a more strategic level amid market uncertainty and continued inflation.
In 2023, banks added 1,037 tonnes of gold, marking the second-highest annual purchases ever, following a record 1,082 tonnes in 2022.
Iraq holds 162.7 tons of gold, ranking 28th globally among the countries with the largest gold reserves.The sources reported that most of the buyers interested in stores so far are private investment companies. This poses a potential problem for Canada’s Koch-Tard and Japan’s SevenandEye, as U.S. antitrust regulators typically resent private equity firms as buyers of exiting trades, given that they are unlikely to be long-term owners.
The experts added that the U.S. Federal Trade Commission does not typically view investment firms as desirable acquisitions of exited trades, because the private equity business model prioritizes short-term returns.
Michio Suzuki, an antitrust partner at Baker McKenzie in Tokyo, said: “The committee will strongly prefer a strategic buyer. In their view, exit buyers should be strong enough to manage the exited stores as a viable competitive unit.”
The exit package proposed by the companies consists of more than 2,000 US stores. Experts pointed out that no precedent exists for the retailer’s private equity ownership, which ended after a major merger.
Financial acquisitions bought grocery stores and dollar stores that larger retail mergers had exited, but their record of running these stores remains mixed.
