The UK labour market has seen significant changes in recent months, with estimates of the number of registered employees rising by 24,000 (0.1%) between September and October 2024. The number of employees also rose by 140,000 (0.5%) between October 2023 and October 2024. This increase is an indication of a stable labour market, despite the current economic volatility.
On the other hand, the number of registered employees fell by 22,000 (0.1%) during the quarter, but the annual increase was significant, reaching 160,000 (0.5%) between August and October 2024. This annual improvement reflects a gradual recovery in employment despite the economic challenges that the UK may face.
In November 2024, preliminary estimates showed that the number of employees registered on the payroll decreased by 35 thousand (0.1%) on a monthly basis, while the annual increase was 76 thousand (0.3%), to 30.4 million employees.
Statistics indicate that the increase in annual employment reflects relative stability in the labour market, but it is undeniable that the UK still faces challenges, including economic inactivity, which affects the unemployment rate.
As such, estimates are expected to continue to change in the coming months as more accurate data becomes available. The fluctuations in employment and unemployment largely reflect the challenges facing the UK economy in light of the changing global economic conditions. At the same time, it is essential that economic policies remain adaptable to these changes to ensure the UK labour market remains stable.
UK Labour Market Volatility: December 2024
The increased volatility in Labour Force Survey estimates, due to smaller sample sizes, is a factor that calls for additional caution in the estimates. It is advisable to use these estimates in combination with a range of different labour market indicators, such as Labour Force Jobs (WFJ) data, claimant count data, and Real Time Information (RTI) estimates of Pay as You Earn (PAYE). This helps to provide a more accurate picture of the state of employment in the UK.
The UK employment rate for people aged 16-64 stands at 74.9% in August-October 2024. This figure remains unchanged from last year but has risen slightly in the last quarter. Despite this improvement, employment remains broadly stable, reflecting a degree of stability in the labour market.
In contrast, the unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over is estimated at 4.3% in the same period. This is higher than last year’s estimate, and has also risen in the last quarter. This increase suggests that economic challenges may be affecting people’s ability to find work, contributing to the increase in the number of unemployed in the UK.
As for economic inactivity, the rate for people aged 16-64 was estimated at 21.7% in August-October 2024. This is lower than last year’s estimate, and also lower than in the last quarter. This decline indicates an improvement in people’s participation in the labour market, with fewer people not actively looking for work.
These indicators continue to provide a complex but clear picture of the state of the UK labour market. However, the need to treat the data with caution remains essential, especially in light of volatile economic conditions.
UK Labour Market Developments: December 2024
In September 2024, the labour force had an estimated 36.8 million jobs available, marking an increase of 73 thousand jobs (0.2%) compared to June 2024. This increase in jobs included both employee and self-employment jobs, reflecting a gradual improvement in job opportunities across sectors.
On the other hand, the number of claimants in the UK increased significantly in November 2024, rising to 1.769 million people, both on a monthly and annual basis. This increase may indicate increasing economic pressures affecting individuals’ ability to find work.
In terms of job vacancies, the estimated number of job vacancies in the UK fell by 31 thousand jobs quarter-on-quarter, to 818 thousand jobs during the period from September to November 2024. Despite this decrease, job vacancies are still at higher levels than in the pre-COVID-19 period.
This continuous decline over 29 quarters reflects challenges in creating new employment opportunities. The annual growth in average employee earnings in Great Britain was 5.2% in the period from August to October 2024. This growth includes both regular earnings (excluding bonuses) and gross earnings (including bonuses).
However, when inflation adjusts wages using the Consumer Price Index, including housing costs for homeowners (CPIH), the annual growth in real terms was 2.2% in the same period. This reflects an improvement in the purchasing power of employees, but remains below the overall increase in wages.
Finally, the number of working days lost due to industrial disputes is estimated to have reached 42,000 across the UK in October 2024. This figure shows the impact of industrial disputes on productivity and highlights the challenges facing the UK economy in the current situation. Despite some positive indicators in the UK labour market, such as increased job availability and wage growth.
