The UK labour market has seen significant changes in recent times. Between August and September 2024, the number of registered employees in the country fell by 9,000, or 0.0%. However, the number of employees increased significantly between September 2023 and September 2024, rising by 136,000, or 0.4%.
When looking at the seasonal data from July to September 2024, the number of employees increased by a further 182,000, or 0.6%. Compared to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for 2024, these statistics point to significant growth in the labour market over the long term.
despite fluctuations in quarterly figures.
Employment data in the UK has ranged from periods of stability to periods of decline. Despite the decline in employment in the last quarter, the overall trend shows relative stability. Analysis of this data shows the importance of the local market in economic growth.
as new jobs are being created at a steady pace despite the current economic challenges.
On the other hand, unemployment and economic inactivity rates are directly affected by these changes. For example, the unemployment rate has continued to decline slightly, indicating a relative improvement in economic conditions. Moreover, annual employment growth appears to reflect the flexibility of the labor market and its ability to adapt to global economic changes.
It is also important to note that these changes do not occur in isolation from other influences such as government policies and economic measures taken to combat inflation or recession. The impact of these policies remains crucial in determining the path of labor market over the coming period.
The role of economic inactivity in this equation cannot be ignored. Inactivity delays job opportunities, limiting the ability of some individuals to enter the labor market. Despite these difficulties, some sectors have been able to demonstrate recovery capabilities thanks to continued investment.
UK Labor Market Estimates: October 2024
The UK labour market estimates for October 2024 saw some slight changes, with the number of employees on the payroll falling by 5,000 (0.0%) on a monthly basis. However, the data showed a year-on-year increase of 95,000 (0.3%), bringing the total number of employees registered to 30.4 million. It is worth noting that the October 2024 estimate is provisional and is expected to be revised when more data becomes available next month.
It is important to stress that the fluctuations seen in the Labour Force Survey estimates reflect some of the challenges faced in analysing labour market data. These fluctuations are due to the smaller sample sizes obtained.
which makes it necessary to treat changes in the figures with caution. In this context, these estimates are not completely fixed and may change in the future.
especially as more detailed data becomes available.
For this reason, experts advise using these estimates as part of a larger set of indicators to understand the state of the labour market accurately. Among these indicators are Labour Force Jobs (WFJ) and Claimant Data.
as well as Real Time Information (RTI) estimates of Payrolls (PAYE). Combining these different indicators helps provide a comprehensive and accurate picture of UK employment trends.
An important factor in this context is to pay attention to monthly fluctuations in employment.
which may reflect temporary or seasonal changes. However, year-on-year comparisons provide a clearer picture of longer-term trends.
allowing us to determine the actual growth in the labour market.
It is clear that UK employment estimates are volatile and should be interpreted with care. Although some changes may be slight, long-term trends show a relative stability in the labour market.
UK Labour Market Analysis: July-September 2024
Continuing the UK labour market review, the employment rate for people aged 16-64 is estimated at 74.8% in July-September 2024. This rate is relatively stable compared to last year, but has increased slightly in the last quarter. This relative improvement in employment reflects the market’s ability to absorb more people into the workforce despite the global economic challenges. In contrast, the UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over is estimated at 4.3% in the same period.
This is higher than last year’s estimate, and indicates increased pressure on the labour market in some sectors. Although unemployment is not at alarming levels, the slight increase in this rate may indicate some weakness in the labour market.
especially in light of the current economic conditions. As for the economic inactivity rate, it is estimated at 21.8% for people aged 16-64 in the same period.
This represents a slight decrease from last year, reflecting an improvement in labour market participation rates. Despite this decline, the inactivity rate remains high compared to some other markets, indicating that there is a portion of the workforce that is either underutilized or not participating in economic activity.
On the other hand, the number of claimants in the UK rose significantly in October 2024, reaching 1.806 million claimants. This increase reflects an increase in the number of people looking for work, either due to job losses or an increase in the number of people looking for new opportunities in light of the current economic challenges.
As for job vacancies, they were estimated at 831,000 in the period from August to October 2024. This estimate represents a decrease of 35,000 jobs on a quarterly basis.
and is the 28th consecutive decline in job vacancies. Despite this decline.
Income growth and the labour market in the UK: July – September 2024
The UK saw average regular earnings of employees, excluding bonuses, grow by 4.8% year-on-year in July-September 2024, a significant improvement on the same period last year. In contrast, annual growth in total earnings (including bonuses) was 4.3%.
However, it should be noted that this overall growth was significantly impacted by one-off payments made to civil servants in July and August 2023. These payments were exceptional and unusually high in annual growth, making interpretation more complex.
When looking at the figures in real terms, i.e. after adjusting for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (CPIH) including housing costs for owners.
the growth in regular wages was 1.9% year-on-year. As for total wages, the annual increase was lower, at 1.4%.
This difference between nominal and real growth reflects the impact of persistent inflation in the economy.
which is reducing people’s purchasing power. Despite the increase in income, the impact of inflation remains a factor that puts pressure on people’s ability to meet their needs.
Alongside these developments in income rates, it is estimated that the number of working days lost due to industrial disputes reached around 48,000 across the UK in September 2024. This figure is an indication of ongoing tensions in the working environment.
with employees in some sectors facing difficulties related to wages and working conditions. Industrial disputes represent a significant loss to the economy.
as they hinder productivity and affect the stability of the labour market in general.
Vacancies remain above pre-pandemic levels, indicating the continued need for labour in many economic sectors. From these figures, it is clear that the UK labour market faces a mix of challenges and opportunities. Working in some areas, reflecting the resilience of the market but also the need for solutions to ensure the stability and prosperity of the UK labour market.
