The UK fixed-wage employment estimate has been revised downwards, with a 6,000 (0.0%) decrease between June and July 2024, while the number increased by 203,000 (0.7%) between July 2023 and July 2024. The preliminary estimate of the number of employees on the payroll for August 2024 was down by 59,000 (0.2%) compared to the previous month, while the number increased by 122,000 (0.4%) compared to the previous year, to 30.3 million. The August 2024 estimate should be viewed as provisional, and is expected to be revised as additional data becomes available next month.
The increased volatility in Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, resulting from smaller sample sizes, requires that change estimates be treated with additional caution. These estimates are recommended as part of a set of labour market indicators, which include Labour Force Jobs (WFJ) data, claimant count data and Real Time Information (RTI) estimates for Pay as You Earn (PAYE). The UK employment rate for people aged 16-64 is estimated at 74.8% for May-July 2024, lower than last year’s estimate but up in the last quarter. The UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over is estimated at 4.1% for May-July 2024, lower than last year’s estimate but down in the last quarter. The UK economic inactivity rate for people aged 16-64 is estimated at 21.9% for May-July 2024, higher than last year’s estimate but down in the last quarter.
Estimated number of jobs available to the workforce
The number of claimants in the UK for August 2024 has risen to 1.792 million, marking a monthly and year-on-year increase. From May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions will increase the administrative earnings threshold for the full job search requirement. This change is expected to affect around 180,000 claimants over a period of around six months, increasing the number of claimants during this period.
Between June and August 2024, the number of job vacancies in the UK is estimated to have fallen by 42,000 in the quarter, to 857,000. Although this is the 26th consecutive quarterly fall in vacancies, they are still above pre-COVID-19 levels.
In June 2024, the number of jobs available to the workforce was estimated at 37.1 million, an increase of 503,000 compared to the previous year, but a decrease of 28,000 jobs on the quarter. Staffing jobs increased by 386,000 compared to the previous year, and by 62,000 jobs on the quarter, to 32.7 million jobs. The annual growth in average regular earnings of employees (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 5.1% for the period May to July 2024, while the annual growth in total earnings (including bonuses) was 4.0%. The overall annual growth is due to one-off payments made by the NHS and the civil service in June and July 2023.
In real terms, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index including housing costs for homeowners (CPIH), annual growth in ordinary wages was 2.2% in May-July 2024, while annual growth in total wages was 1.1%. The number of working days lost due to industrial disputes across the UK is estimated to have been 42,000 in July 2024. The majority of strikes have been in the health and social work sector.
Income tax and income data from the administrative tax registers
Annual growth rates in a selection of employment indicators, as these rates provide a more stable and longer-term view of changes. The LFS is based on household surveys, while the LFS is based primarily on business surveys of employee jobs, while the LFS covers self-employed jobs. Income and income tax data are drawn from administrative tax records and are limited to salaried employees only.
These sources are collected and processed in different ways, which means that differences in levels, such as the difference between jobs and people, are expected, as well as divergent trends between individual periods. More details on how best to compare these different sources can be found in the Consistency of data sources section and in our article on comparing labour market sources. Annual growth across all three sources has been steadily slowing over the past year.
This has pushed the already weak growth rates of the employment and employee measures in the LFS into negative territory for most of the past nine months. Although annual growth in the WFJ and RTI measures has also slowed, it has remained positive. WFJ annual growth in employee jobs fell from 2.2% in June 2023 to 1.2% in June 2024, while RTI annual growth fell from 1.9% to 0.8% over the corresponding periods.
There is broad consistency between WFJ and RTI when looking at year-on-year change, suggesting that these sources are likely to provide a more reliable reading of employment, particularly for employees. These sources point to a sustained slowdown in employment growth over the past year, with less volatility compared to the Labour Force Survey over the same time period. However, it is worth noting that in the most recent three-month period, all three sources reported year-on-year growth.
