U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.3 million barrels per day during the week ending January 31, 2025, which is 159,000 barrels per day higher than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 84.5% of their operating capacity last week. Gasoline production fell last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production fell last week, averaging 4.6 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.9 million bpd last week, up 467,000 bpd from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged around 6.6 million barrels per day, up 2.8% from the same four-week period last year. Imports of gasoline for cars (including ready-made gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 593,000 barrels per day, and distilled fuel imports averaged 159,000 barrels per day.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 8.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 423.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. Total car gasoline inventories increased by about 2.2 million barrels from last week and are slightly above the five-year average for this time of year. Ready-to-end gasoline inventories fell while blending ingredient inventories increased last week.
Distilled fuel inventories fell by about 5.5 million barrels last week, about 12 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories are down 4.8 million barrels from last week and about 2 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. Total commercial oil inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels last week.
What is the importance of the weekly report on US crude oil inventories?
The weekly report on crude oil inventories in US dollars, issued by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) or the American Petroleum Institute (API), is of great importance to traders in the energy market due to several key reasons:
- Supply and demand indicators:
The data provides an overview of the supply and demand dynamics of the US oil market. Higher crude oil inventories generally indicate weak demand or oversupply, which could put downward pressure on oil prices. Conversely, lower inventories indicate increased demand or potential supply disruptions, which could lead to higher oil prices. Traders are watching these changes closely as they reflect shifts in the balance of supply and demand.
- Market sentiment and price movements:
The report can cause spot price fluctuations in crude oil futures and related markets. If reported inventory levels are higher or lower than analysts’ expectations, this could lead to sudden price movements. For example, if inventories rise unexpectedly, traders may expect demand to decrease or oversupply in the market, prompting them to sell oil positions, which can lead to lower prices. On the other hand, low inventory can lead to Sudden to create bullish sentiment, leading to higher prices.
- Oil Price Volatility:
Traders use the weekly inventory report to gauge potential volatility in the market. Large changes in inventory levels, especially when combined with geopolitical events or broader economic data, can indicate potential price fluctuations. These volatility offers opportunities for traders to take advantage of short-term market movements, but they also increase risk, requiring careful strategy and hedging.
How do analysts predict changes in US crude oil inventories, and what factors influence this outlook?
Analysts predict changes in crude oil inventories in US dollars by analyzing a range of factors that affect supply and demand in the oil market. Their forecast aims to estimate how much crude oil is likely to be stored at any given time and how external factors might affect these levels. Several key elements are taken into account when making these predictions, including:
Supply and production data:
Oil supply is one of the most important drivers of changes in crude oil inventories. Analysts are closely monitoring production levels in the United States and other major oil-producing countries. The Energy Information Administration and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries provide regular updates on oil production rates, helping analysts estimate how much crude oil is entering the market. Factors such as new oil discoveries or production cuts or increases can significantly affect inventory levels.
Factors affecting production expectations include:
- Changes in drilling activity (tracked by the number of Baker Hughes rigs).
- OPEC production agreements or cuts.
- Seasonal changes in oil production (for example, cold winters may increase demand for heating fuels).
- Technological advances in extraction methods, such as hydraulic fracturing.
Refining and infrastructure activity:
The level of refining activity is another determining factor affecting crude oil inventories. Refineries process crude oil and convert it into refined products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. If refining operations are fully operational or increasing, this could reduce the amount of crude oil stored, resulting in lower inventories. Conversely, if refinery utilization decreases (due to maintenance or operation issues), crude oil inventories may accumulate.
Analysts track refining production, which is the amount of crude oil processed by crude oil refineries. High refining processes generally lead to lower crude oil inventories.
