In October 2024, the UK economy is expected to experience a larger contraction in exports than imports. Exports are forecast to fall by -1.9%, while import prices are forecast to fall slightly by -0.3%. Exports fell significantly in markets outside the EU, falling by -3.2%, while exports to the EU area fell slightly by -0.7%.
The August-October 2024 quarter saw a slight improvement in exports. Exports grew by 0.6% compared to the previous quarter, while imports grew by 1.1%. This slight improvement in exports highlights the ability of some markets to absorb increased demand for UK goods, particularly in regions such as the EU.
Export and import developments in October 2024
At the financial year level, exports increased by 1.6% in value, but this growth was limited in volume, as they were unchanged (-0.1%). The increase in value of exports was driven by a growth in the EU markets of 3.7%, while non-EU markets recorded a slight decrease in exports of -0.7%.
As for imports, they recorded a modest growth of 0.4%, a combination of an increase in the EU area (+3.9%) and a decrease in the non-EU areas (-4.0%). In volume terms, imports increased by 1.2%, reflecting the continued demand for goods and raw materials from global markets.
Sectors contributing to export growth
Several sectors contributed significantly to the growth in exports during October 2024. Among the sectors that witnessed notable growth were:
- Sporting goods, toys, musical instruments, jewellery, medical instruments and other products not elsewhere classified, which recorded a significant growth of +35.8%.
- Food products, beverages and tobacco, which saw an increase of +10.5%.
- Pharmaceutical, chemical, medicinal and plant products, whose exports increased by +11.5%.
On the other hand, some sectors recorded a significant decline in exports, such as:
- Coke and refined petroleum products, whose exports decreased by -57.2%.
Countries contributing to export growth
Internationally, there were some countries that contributed significantly to the increase in national exports. The most prominent of these countries were:
- Turkey, which recorded an increase of +33.5%.
- The United Kingdom, which recorded an increase of +10.8%.
- France, which recorded an increase of +4.4%.
- Spain, which recorded an increase of +8.0%.
- Belgium, which recorded an increase of +10.3%.
On the other hand, there were some countries that contributed to the decrease in exports, such as:
- The United States, which witnessed a decrease of -11.8%.
- OPEC countries, which recorded a decrease of -17.6%.
Annual performance of exports and imports in 2024
In the first ten months of 2024, exports recorded a slight decrease of -0.5% compared to the previous year. Cars were among the most prominent sectors that witnessed a significant decline in their sales, as they decreased by -14.5%. Coke and refined petroleum products also witnessed a decrease of -15.4%.
On the other hand, some other sectors saw a significant increase, such as:
- Sporting goods, toys, musical instruments and jewellery, which increased by +19.7%.
- Food products, beverages and tobacco, which increased by +8.3%.
- Pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemicals and phytochemicals, which increased by +6.5%.
Trade balance in October 2024
In October 2024, the trade balance recorded a surplus of EUR 5,153 million, compared to EUR 4,495 million in October 2023. On the other hand, the deficit in energy decreased to -4,706 million euros, compared to -5,204 million euros the previous year.
In contrast, the surplus in non-energy trade increased slightly, rising from EUR 9,700 million in October 2023 to EUR 9,860 million in October 2024. This indicates a continued increase in non-energy exports, reflecting the sector’s ability to adapt to global economic challenges.
Import prices in October 2024
In October 2024, import prices fell by 0.1% on a monthly basis, while they fell by 1.5% on an annual basis. Prices had fallen by -0.5% in September. This decline reflects the ongoing effects of global economic turmoil, particularly in energy markets.
These declines in import prices come after a series of turmoil in global markets in recent months. Commodity prices such as oil and gas are directly affected by these turmoil, which is reflected in prices within British markets. Despite this decline in prices, the British economy remains heavily dependent on imports of commodities from around the world.
Impacts of the global economic situation
The British economy continues to face multiple challenges in light of global economic fluctuations. Factors affecting foreign trade include:
- Geopolitical tensions, which may lead to changes in commodity prices.
- Rising energy prices as a result of regional crises, which raises production and transportation costs.
- Changes in trade policies in major countries such as the United States and the European Union, which may be reflected in international trade.
In October 2024, UK foreign trade data showed clear fluctuations in exports and imports. While exports fell markedly in some sectors, there were increases in others such as sporting goods and pharmaceuticals. On the other hand, import prices fell as a result of a number of global economic factors, indicating ongoing economic challenges. Going forward, the impact of the global economic situation will continue to shape UK foreign trade, with volatility likely to persist in different markets.
In October, the cyclical decline in exports, due in particular to a decline in capital goods exports to non-EU countries, was driven by sales of marine navigation equipment manufactured in the previous month; net of these reductions, the decline is more contained (-1.0%).
