U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million barrels per day during the week ending November 22, 2024, which is 67,000 barrels per day higher than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 90.5% of their operating capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.7 million barrels per day. Distilled fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.1 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million bpd last week, down 1.6 million bpd from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged around 6.6 million barrels per day, up 5.5% from the same four-week period last year. Imports of gasoline for cars (including ready-made gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 636,000 barrels per day, and distilled fuel imports averaged 144,000 barrels per day.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 428.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. Total car gasoline inventories rose by about 3.3 million barrels from last week and about 3 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.
Inventories of ready-made gasoline and blending ingredients rose last week. Distilled fuel inventories rose by about 0.4 million barrels last week, about 5 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories are down about 1.0 million barrels from last week and are about 9 percent higher than the five-year average for this time of year. Total commercial oil inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels last week.
Products supplied during the past four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.0% over the same period last year.
Key Factors Influencing Global Demand for U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Several key factors are currently affecting the demand for crude oil. The main ones are:
- Economic growth
Global Economic Conditions: Economic growth in major economies (such as the United States, China, and the Eurozone) drives demand for oil. Strong industrial activities, transportation needs and consumer spending are also increasing oil consumption.
- Geopolitical events
Conflicts and tensions: Political instability in oil-producing regions (such as the Middle East) can disrupt supply and affect demand perceptions. Sanctions on countries such as Iran or Venezuela also play a role.
- Energy Transition and Policy
Transition to renewables: The global push for renewable energy and decarbonization will affect oil demand in the long run. Policies that promote electric vehicles and alternative energy sources can reduce oil consumption.
- Production decisions made by OPEC+
Supply management: Decisions made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) to reduce or increase production affect oil prices and can indirectly affect demand.
- Technological progress
Efficiency improvements: Advances in energy efficiency and alternative technologies (such as electric vehicles and biofuels) could reduce oil demand in transportation and industry.
- Seasonal demand fluctuations
Weather and seasons: Seasonal changes can affect demand, such as increased gasoline consumption while traveling in summer or increased use of heating oil in winter.
- Consumer behavior
Shifts in preferences: Changes in consumer preferences, especially towards more sustainable options, can affect oil demand. Economic conditions also affect how much people travel and consume.
These factors interact to shape global demand for crude oil, creating a complex landscape that affects prices and market dynamics. Observing these elements is critical to understanding future trends in the oil market.
The complex relationship between oil prices and inflation and their effects
The relationship between oil prices and inflation is complex and important, influenced by various economic factors. Here’s a detailed look at how they interact:
- Direct impact on consumer prices
Cost of goods and services: Oil is one of the essential inputs in the production and transportation of goods. When oil prices rise, the cost of producing and transporting goods rises. This can lead to higher consumer prices, contributing to overall inflation.
- Energy costs
Household expenses: High oil prices increase the costs of gasoline, heating fuel, and electricity (especially in areas where oil is a primary source of energy). As consumers spend more on energy, they have less income available for other goods and services, which can lead to higher prices in those sectors as well.
- Inflation expectations
Inflation expectations: Higher oil prices can affect expectations for future inflation. If consumers and businesses expect higher oil prices to lead to broader price increases, they may modify their behavior (e.g., demanding higher wages or proactively raising prices), potentially creating a self-fulfilling inflationary cycle.
- Monetary Policy Responses
Central bank actions: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, are closely monitoring inflation. If high oil prices contribute to higher inflation, central banks may respond by tightening monetary policy (e.g., raising interest rates). This could have a cooling effect on the economy, which could further affect oil demand.
- Linkage to other commodities
Commodity prices: Higher oil prices can affect the prices of other commodities (such as natural gas and coal), further contributing to inflationary pressures across different sectors.
The relationship between oil prices and inflation is multifaceted, encompassing direct cost impacts, consumer behavior, monetary policy responses, and global economic dynamics. Observing this relationship is critical to understanding broader economic trends and making informed policy decisions.
