The US dollar is experiencing a slight recovery after a series of declines driven by a potential slowdown in the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates.
The Swiss franc remained supported as a safe haven amid geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe.
The release of US economic data this week without surprises prompted markets to reduce interest rate hike expectations, which weakened the dollar’s strength somewhat. However, the pair found technical support near 0.8150
Technical Indicator Analysis
Moving Averages
The price has broken the 50 and 100 moving averages but remains below 200.
A signal of only a temporary upward correction.
MACD
Moderate positive momentum, and the bullish crossover continues.
Not yet entering the bullish overbought zone.
Stochastic
In the overbought zone (above 80).
Indicates a possible slight pullback or resistance test.
Possible Scenarios
Bullish Scenario
Continued upward movement if 0.8264 is breached with a clear close.
We may then see a target of 0.8300.
Bearish Scenario
A price rejection from 0.8264 could return the price to test 0.8180 – 0.8150.
A break of 0.8150 would strongly resume the downtrend.
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | USDCHF |
| 0.82644 | 0.81804 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 0.82644 | First support: 0.81514 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance 0.82342 | Second support 0.81215 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 0.81804 | 0.82644 | Stop Loss (SL) |
The current movement in USD/CHF is a correction within a downtrend.
A break above 0.8264 is necessary to confirm a trend reversal; otherwise, the current resistance could present a strong selling opportunity at the first sign of technical weakness.
From a technical and economic perspective, it is best to wait and see the price reaction at the resistance, as the continuation of the upward momentum depends on a change in the Fed’s tone or a sudden decline in demand for the franc.
