The USDCAD pair has continued to trade in a narrow range since the end of last week, following a downward trend that extended from 1.4250 to below 1.3860. The pair enters today’s session on April 15 amid market anticipation ahead of the release of important US data that could determine the price’s direction in the short term. Will we see a bullish breakout of the range, or will the pair resume its decline?
USDCAD General Technical Outlook
- The general trend remains bearish in the short term, but the price is currently moving within a sideways range (marked by the blue rectangle).
- The price remains below the 20, 50, and 100 moving averages, confirming selling pressure.
- The current consolidation indicates a wait-and-see stance for a decisive breakout on one side.
Technical Indicator Analysis
MACD:
Showing a clear slowdown in negative momentum with a weak bullish crossover, which may indicate a potential temporary technical rebound.
Stochastic Indicator (Stoch 9, 2, 5):
It has exited the oversold zone, but it reflects volatility and hesitation in taking a direction.
Moving Averages:
Shows a continuation of the downtrend, with the 20-period moving average acting as an immediate resistance zone.
Possible Bullish Scenario
If the upper resistance breaks the consolidation zone
- 1.3920 – Crossover of the 50-period moving average
- 1.3945 – High during early April
- 1.4025 – Previous high and trend reversal
- 1.4050 – Important technical resistance
- 1.4085 – Additional corrective barrier
- 1.4110 – Resistance from the end of March high
- 1.4145 – Potential structural reversal level
Possible Bearish Scenario
If the lower support of the range is broken
- 1.3830 – Immediate support
- 1.3810 – This week’s low.
- 1.3790 – Previous technical support.
- 1.3765 – March low support.
- 1.3735 – Critical pivot point.
- 1.3680 – Extended technical bottom.
- 1.3650 – Monthly support line.
- 1.3625 – Strong demand area.
- 1.3590 – Potential yearly low.
Impactful economic data for Tuesday, April 15, 2025:
- US Retail Sales (March): A leading indicator that reflects the strength of consumer spending, and any weakness could pressure the dollar.
- Canadian Producer Price Index (PPI): Provides an indication of Canadian inflation expectations and could impact the Canadian dollar.
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | USDCAD |
| 1.38952 | 1.38346 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.39250 | First support: 1.38046 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance 1.39550 | Second support 1.37700 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.38346 | 1.38952 | Stop Loss (SL) |
The USDCAD pair is trading at a critical juncture after a series of losses, as it remains stuck within a narrow range awaiting new catalysts. Technical indicators point to a potential temporary rebound, but the overall trend remains bearish unless the 1.3900 level is clearly breached. Today’s data, led by US retail sales, will be key in determining the pair’s future direction.
