Crude oil prices have recorded sharp declines over the past two weeks, driven by concerns about slowing global demand and increasing US inventories. In this technical analysis, we follow the developments of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil chart on the H4 timeframe to identify the most important technical levels and forecast the direction of the market during the upcoming trading sessions.
Market Overview and Trading Prices
- Current price: $61.12 per barrel
- Today’s high: $62.15
- General trend: Bearish in the medium term, with an upward corrective bounce
- Technical range: Between support at $58.15 and resistance at $64.27
Prices are showing attempts to stabilize after the sharp decline from highs near $75, while technical indicators are beginning to point to a potential recovery in the short term.
Economic Events Affecting Oil Trading – April 14, 2025
Several economic data releases may have a direct impact on oil price movements today, most notably:
- The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Report: Any unexpected increase in inventory could pressure prices.
- OPEC+ Statements: Impacting global supply.
- US production figures and the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) monthly energy outlook.
Technical Analysis of the WTI Oil Market – H4
Technical Trend:
Although the overall trend remains downward in the medium term, there is a technical rebound starting from the strong support area at 58.15, which may be interpreted as a temporary correction wave.
Technical Indicators:
- MACD: Showing a bullish crossover with positive bars, reflecting a gradual recovery in momentum.
- Stochastic: Entering the overbought zone (>80), which may herald an imminent resistance or temporary pullback.
Oil Price Technical Forecast – April 14, 2025
The price is expected to continue consolidating above the 59.93 support level. If it succeeds in breaking the 62.93 resistance level with a clear close, we may witness an extension towards 64.27. A break of the 59.93 support level may re-introduce selling pressure to test the previous low at 58.15.
Suggested Trading Scenario:
- Buy on a break of 62.93, with a target of 64.27.
- Sell if it fails at 62.93, with a target of 59.93–58.15.
- Stop Loss: Depending on the scenario, above 64.50 if selling, or below 59.50 if buying.
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell level
| USOIL | In case of buying | in case of selling |
| Entry point | 62.93 | 59.93 |
| Target Point 1 (TP1) | First resistance: 64.27 | First support: 58.16 |
| Target Point 2 (TP2) | Second resistance: 65.12 | Second support: 57.00 |
| Stop Loss (SL) | 59.93 | 62.93 |
Despite the prevailing downtrend, oil prices are showing technical signs of recovery, but continued upward movement is contingent upon a breakout of the key resistance level at 62.93. Traders are advised to monitor US economic data, particularly the inventory report, and to approach any sharp movement unsupported by clear momentum with caution.
