The USD/CAD pair fell sharply after the release of strong data from Canada, particularly a net employment increase of more than 40,000 jobs, along with a decline in the unemployment rate. This boosted investor confidence in the Canadian economy and pushed the local currency higher.
Conversely, the US dollar was negatively impacted by the decline in economic momentum, especially after inflation data came in within expectations, reducing the chances of another interest rate hike this year. This negatively impacted the dollar’s strength against commodity-linked currencies like the Canadian dollar.
Technical Indicator Analysis
Moving Averages
The price is below the 50, 100, and 200 moving averages
The slope of all moving averages is negative, confirming selling pressure
MACD
The indicator is in a wide negative range
There are no clear reversal signals so far
Stochastic
The indicator is moving upward from the 20–30 levels
It may indicate a limited correction towards resistance before resuming the decline
Possible Scenarios
Bullish Scenario
The decline will continue if the price fails to exceed 1.3887
A break of 1.3829 will push the price to 1.3800 – 1.3770
Bearish Scenario
• If a close above 1.3887, the pair may rise towards 1.3909
- However, the overall trend remains negative unless 1.3940 is breached
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| In case of buying | in case of selling | GBPUSD |
| 1.38873 | 1.38483 | Entry point |
| First resistance: 1.38873 | First support: 1.38288 | Target Point 1 (TP1) |
| Second resistance 1. 39073 | Second support 1.38086 | Target Point 2 (TP2) |
| 1.38483 | 1.38873 | Stop Loss (SL) |
The USDCAD pair is under dual technical and economic pressure. The current movement is within a clear downward wave, and any rise is considered a temporary correction as long as the price remains below 1.3909.
From an expert perspective, it is preferable to exploit short-term gains for selling, targeting the next support at 1.3800, especially if positive economic data from Canada continues this week.
