The USD/CHF pair has been trading on a clear downward trajectory since the beginning of April, with the US dollar losing ground against the Swiss franc amid growing expectations of a US interest rate hike, coupled with investor inflows into safe-haven assets like the franc amid market volatility.
The pair has made limited recovery attempts over the past three days, but has failed to break through key resistance levels, indicating that the downtrend remains dominant in the short-term.
Current Trading Prices
- Current Price: 0.8169
- Today’s High: 0.8175
- Today’s Low: 0.8162
- General Trend: Bearish in the short and medium term
Today’s Key Economic Influences
- US Retail Sales data: Due later, it is a crucial indicator of the strength of the US economy, potentially causing volatility in the dollar.
- Federal Reserve Officials’ Statements: This may reveal monetary policy intentions for the coming period.
- General caution in the markets increases investor demand for the franc as a safe haven.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
The H1 chart shows continued selling pressure, with the price failing to sustain any gains above the moving averages. Technical indicators also continue to support the downside.
Technical Indicators:
- MACD: Remains in negative territory, reflecting continued selling momentum.
- Stochastic: Has begun to rebound from the oversold zone, which may indicate a temporary rebound.
- Moving Averages: The price is below the 20- and 50-EMAs, confirming the downtrend.
Today’s Forecast for USD/CHF
Selling pressure is likely to continue as long as the price remains below the 0.8211 resistance. Any rebound towards this area could be met with a new sell wave.
If the 0.8126 support is broken, the pair could head towards 0.8085 as a new downside target.
Suggested Trading Strategy:
- Sell on any bounce toward 0.8210 – 0.8220
- Targets: 0.8126 then 0.8085
- Stop Loss: Breakout of 0.8255 with an hourly close
- Alternative Scenario: Buy conditional on a clear breakout of 0.8255 with targets at 0.8300
Trading strategies based on Buy/Sell levels
| USDCHF | In case of buying | in case of selling |
| Entry point | 0.82211 | 0.81326 |
| Target Point 1 (TP1) | First resistance: 0.82550 | First support: 0.80857 |
| Target Point 2 (TP2) | Second resistance: 0.85641 | Second support: 0.80641 |
| Stop Loss (SL) | 0.81326 | 0.82211 |
The USD/CHF pair is in a downtrend, supported by both technical and fundamental factors. With anticipation growing for today’s important US economic data, volatility is expected to continue, with a stronger downside potential.
