USD/JPY pair prices continue to move within a correction in a descending channel. Currently, the USD/JPY exchange rate is at 141.70. The moving averages may indicate a short-term downtrend. The area between the signal lines has been broken downwards, indicating pressure from dollar sellers. The price is expected to try to develop growth and test the resistance area near 142.75. After that, the price may rebound downwards and continue to fall below the 134.45 level.
Additional forecast:
Another bearish signal will be a test of the resistance line on the RSI. Also, the price rebound from the upper border of the descending channel may support this trend. Also, the cancellation of the downside option will be associated with strong growth and a break of the 144.85 level, which indicates a break of the resistance area. In this case, the pair is expected to continue rising above 147.45. It is necessary to expect confirmation of the decline upon breaking the support level and consolidation below the 138.75 area.
Expectations indicate an attempt to test the resistance area near the 142.75 level. After that, prices are expected to continue falling below 134.45. Testing the trend line on the RSI will reinforce the pair’s decline. Cancelling the bearish option will be linked to strong growth and breaking the 144.85 level. This break will indicate exceeding the resistance level and continuing the pair’s growth, with a potential target above 147.45.
In the world of forex trading, the USD/JPY pair is one of the most traded pairs. This pair is influenced by a set of economic, political and psychological factors, so the USD/JPY forecast carries many challenges and opportunities. Traders should be aware of the economic and political factors that affect the market. Technical analysis provides valuable tools for understanding current trends.
The dollar rises against the Japanese yen
The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen by 0.07% on Tuesday, September 17, after the release of important economic data from the United States.
US retail sales data: The US core retail sales data showed an increase of 0.1%, which is lower than the previous rate of 0.4%. Total retail sales also recorded a rate of 0%, compared to expectations of a decrease of -0.2%. These results indicate weak consumer consumption, which raises concerns about the recovery of the US economy.
The dollar index stabilizes: The dollar index stabilized at the end of the session at 100.865, reflecting a state of relative stability in the market before the release of important economic decisions.
Improved industrial activity in Japan: On the other hand, the tertiary industrial activity index in Japan recorded an increase of 1.4%, compared to a previous decrease of -1.2%. This improvement reflects an increase in industrial activity, which may strengthen the Japanese yen in the short term.
Market expectations for the interest rate decision: Markets are awaiting the interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve today, Wednesday, September 18. This decision is considered one of the main factors that affect the movement of the dollar and financial markets in general. This decision is expected to have a significant impact on future expectations regarding monetary policy in America, and may play an important role in determining trends in currency markets.
Current status of the USD/JPY pair: The moving averages show a short-term downward trend, indicating continued selling pressure on the dollar. Therefore, it is important to monitor technical indicators that may give signals of a reversal or continuation of the trend.
Factors affecting the US dollar: The US dollar is considered a major currency in the global financial system. The dollar is affected by several factors.
Factors affecting the Japanese yen
Economic data: Economic data such as unemployment rates, economic growth, and inflation indicators have a significant impact on the value of the dollar. If positive data is released, it can support the dollar and lead to its appreciation against the yen.
Geopolitical events: Any political or economic tensions that affect the market in general can also affect the dollar. For example, trade disputes or economic crises in major countries can lead to fluctuations in the price of the dollar.
Factors affecting the Japanese yen: The Japanese yen is considered a safe haven currency, which means that investors tend to buy it in times of economic uncertainty. Some of the factors affecting the yen include:
Bank of Japan monetary policy: The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy is a major factor affecting the value of the yen. If the bank continues its monetary easing policy, it can lead to the yen weakening against the dollar.
Japanese economic performance: Growth, unemployment, and inflation data play an important role in determining the value of the yen. If the data indicates a weakness in the Japanese economy, the yen may be negatively affected.
Geopolitical tensions: As with the dollar, global events can affect the value of the yen. In cases of tension, investors may turn to the yen as a safe haven.
Technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair: When analyzing the USD/JPY pair, several technical tools are used. The most important of them are:
Moving averages: Moving averages are used to determine the general trend. The current downtrend may indicate a continuation of selling.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Helps determine whether the pair is in the overbought or oversold zone. Testing the trend line on the RSI will be an additional signal in favor of the pair falling.
