UK retail sales fell markedly in October 2024, mainly due to weak clothing sales. According to preliminary estimates, retail sales volumes are expected to fall by 0.7% in October 2024. This follows a small increase of 0.1% in September, which was recently revised down from 0.3%.
Retailers reported that budget uncertainty was a factor that negatively affected sales in non-food stores. They also indicated that economic concerns significantly affected purchasing decisions, causing a significant decline in these sectors. At the same time, data showed that clothing sales were among the weakest, contributing to the pressure on overall performance.
On the other hand, despite this decline in monthly sales, the data showed that sales volumes increased by 0.8% in the three months to October 2024, compared to the same period in July 2024. This improvement in sales in the quarter is a positive sign, despite the ongoing economic pressures.
This monthly improvement reflects some relative stability in the market, but suggests that the challenges facing the retail sector remain. Rising inflation rates and concerns about economic stability may continue to affect consumer spending patterns in the coming period.
The sales report also showed that consumers have become more cautious in their purchases, reflecting a change in purchasing behavior. This change could have significant implications for the sector in the coming months.
especially in light of the uncertain economic outlook.
Retail sales are expected to continue to fluctuate in the near future, as concerns about the global economy persist. Analysts suggest that improvements in the sales sector may depend on improving economic conditions, including political and economic stability in the United Kingdom.
YoY growth in online sales shows positive signs
According to the data, online spending volume, known as “online spending values,” decreased by 1.2% in October 2024. However, online spending increased by 5% compared to the same month last year, October 2023. This discrepancy reflects some shifts in consumer behavior that may be related to economic or seasonal factors.
In addition, total spending, which includes in-store sales as well as online sales, decreased by 0.6% during the month. This had an impact on the proportion of sales made online, which decreased from 27.8% in September 2024 to 27.7% in October 2024. This slight decrease may indicate that there has been a slight change in consumer preferences or that they are being affected by economic factors.
Despite this decline, the year-on-year growth in online sales continues to show positive signs, which shows that demand for online shopping remains strong. However, it is clear that the market environment faces some challenges, including economic turmoil and financial conditions that may affect consumer spending.
The decline in online retail sales is noteworthy, as some of these challenges reflect the effects of market changes, including general concerns about economic conditions and fiscal policies. These trends are expected to continue to influence consumer behavior, especially as speculation about future economic policies increases.
However, the situation could change if economic confidence returns more strongly. Improved economic conditions could lead to increased spending on goods online. Also, the expansion of e-commerce services could attract more online shoppers, helping to drive future growth in the sector. This contributes to enhancing the sector’s ability to make strategic decisions supported by data.
The market response could change based on economic variables
In October 2024, the response rate for the Retail Sales Index (RSI) was 64.8% based on the returned samples. This rate reflects 95.2% of the total sales volume in the target population sample. This percentage confirms the strength of the coverage provided by the index in providing a comprehensive picture of the performance of the retail sector during the month in question. For more information on historical response information, please refer to the Retail Sales Quality Tables dataset.
The data used in this index provides detailed details on how it was calculated. This information includes strengths and limitations that can affect the results. For a more detailed explanation, a glossary of relevant terms, as well as detailed information on the measurement methodology, is available in the Retail Sales and Quality Index (QMI) report.
These statistics were independently reviewed by the Bureau of Statistics in March 2015, which ensures their reliability. The data adheres to the guidelines and practices adopted in the field of statistics, meeting standards of reliability and quality. Therefore, they can be classified as “official statistics”. These statistics are a reliable source of information on retail sales performance, and are based on scientific and methodological foundations that contribute to providing accurate and reliable results.
It is also important to note that this data is not static, as market response can change based on economic variables and fluctuations in demand. For example, seasonal factors or major economic changes can affect consumer response, which in turn is reflected in retail sales.
Efforts continue to improve the quality of data provided for economic indicators. Continued improvements in methodologies are expected to help raise levels of accuracy and achieve broader coverage in the future.
