UK GDP Forecast: August 2024

Gross domestic product is a key economic indicator that measures the value of goods and services produced in the UK. It helps to estimate the size and growth of the economy. Real GDP is forecast to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to August 2024, compared to the three months to May 2024. Services output is the main contributor to this growth, rising by 0.1%. There was also a notable increase in construction output, which rose by 1.0%. In contrast, production output showed no growth during this period.

Monthly GDP is also forecast to have grown by 0.2% in August 2024, after no growth in June and July 2024. These unrevised results from the last publication are a sign of stabilization in the economy.

Infrastructure Work

New infrastructure work is the main driver of this growth. It rose by 2.7%, reflecting the government and investors’ focus on improving infrastructure. In addition, non-residential repair and maintenance activities grew by 5.6%. This trend shows the importance of maintenance and sustainable development in the sector.

Monthly growth in August 2024

On a monthly basis, output in the construction sector is expected to rise by 0.4% in August 2024. This follows a decline of 0.4% in July 2024. A 1.6% increase in new work contributed to this growth, while repair and maintenance activities decreased by 1.0%. This contrast reflects the challenges and opportunities that exist in the market.

Sectoral performance in August

Five of the nine sectors in construction saw increases in August 2024. The main contributor to construction growth was new private housing, which increased by 3.4%. Additionally, new private commercial work recorded an increase of 2.2%. These results reflect an improvement in demand for new construction projects.

Services sector and sub-sector performance

The services sector is expected to grow by 0.1% in the three months to August 2024. This sector shows remarkable dynamism, with activity increasing in 7 of the 14 subsectors. This growth is a positive sign reflecting improvements in multiple areas.

Professional, scientific and technical activities are the largest contributor to growth in services output, recording a growth of 0.8% in the three months to August 2024. The information and communications sector also saw a notable increase in output of 0.9%. However, the period was not without challenges. The largest negative contribution came from the human health and social work sector, whose output fell by 1.1%.

Subsector performance

Looking at performance on a monthly basis, services output is expected to grow by 0.1% in August 2024. This follows an unrevised increase of 0.1% in July. Of the 14 subsectors, 4 contributed positively to growth, 7 negatively and 3 showed no contribution. These dynamics reflect the challenges and opportunities across the economy.

Forward Outlook

As positive trends continue, growth in the services sector could help boost the economy as a whole. Improvements in professional and scientific activities are signs of recovery and sustainable growth. Challenged sectors, such as health and social work, should also be monitored to ensure growth is sustainable. These data could suggest that the UK is heading in a positive direction, with sustained economic growth expected. Despite the challenges, opportunities still exist to boost growth across sectors. Policymakers and investors should monitor these trends carefully to ensure resources are invested effectively.

information contained in this report is essential to understanding current economic trends. Given the expected improvements, positive trends in the UK economy could be strengthened. It is important to stay up to date with economic reports and data analysis to gain a comprehensive view of economic growth.

UK Consumer Services Output Analysis: August 2024

Consumer-facing services output rose by 0.1% in the three months to August 2024. Retail trade, excluding automobiles and motorcycles, made the largest positive contribution to this growth, which came from several factors. Retail trade grew by 1.2%, helping to drive growth in the services sector.

Positive performance of retail trade

Retail trade is the backbone of consumer-facing services output. In August 2024, output in this industry rose by 1.0%. This followed a similar growth of 0.2% in July 2024. These figures reflect growing consumer demand and interest in purchasing. For more information, see the August 2024 Retail Sales Bulletin.

Challenges for personal services activities

Despite the growth in retail trade, personal services activities faced significant challenges. Output in this sector fell by 3.7% over the same period. This decline highlights the importance of studying market trends, as service providers may need to improve their offerings to attract consumers. Performance Analysis August 2024

Output in consumer-facing services rose by 0.2% in August 2024, following similar growth in the previous month. Retail trade was the main contributor, reflecting increased consumer confidence in the economy. Other personal services activities also grew by 4.1%, following a series of three consecutive monthly declines. This recovery reflects the need to strengthen marketing and consumer outreach strategies.

Importance of data and analysis

Additional information on consumer-facing services performance is available in the August 2024 dataset. This data is essential for analysing trends and understanding consumer behaviour. This analysis helps decision-makers develop effective strategies to support growth.

Future implications

These trends demonstrate the importance of retail trade to the UK economy. By strengthening this sector, the performance of consumer-facing services can be improved. Personal activities need innovative strategies to attract consumers back. Overall, growth in consumer-facing services is a positive indicator of the health of the economy.

UK Production Sector Performance Analysis: August 2024

In the three months to August 2024, output is expected to show little growth compared to the three months to May 2024. This stability is due to a balance between growth and declines in several sectors. The increase in manufacturing, which amounted to 0.5%, was offset by declines in other sectors.

Sector Analysis Water supply, sanitation, waste management and remediation increased by 0.3%. However, these increases were insufficient to offset the large declines. The mining and quarrying sector recorded a decline of 1.7%, while electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply decreased by 1.9%. These figures highlight the ongoing challenges facing the production sector, particularly in the areas of energy and mining.

Sector Performance Month-on-month Production output is expected to grow by 0.5% in August 2024. This growth follows a previous decline of 0.7% in July 2024, which was revised from a decline of 0.8% in the last release. These figures indicate a modest recovery in the production sector.

Key sectors in August 2024 Three of the four key sectors of output saw significant growth in August. The largest contribution to growth was from manufacturing, which rose by 1.1%. Water supply, sanitation, waste management and remediation activities also grew by 1.5%. In addition, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply increased by 1.2%. However, these increases were partly offset by a 4.0% decline in the mining and quarrying sector. This divergence across sectors shows how external and internal factors influence overall performance.

Conclusions and future prospects This data highlights the importance of keeping a close eye on the production sector. Despite monthly improvements, the overall stability in production output suggests an urgent need to boost investment in struggling sectors, such as mining and energy. Innovation and technological improvements can help boost productivity.

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