In September 2024, retail trade in the euro area and the European Union increased significantly. According to preliminary estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, retail trade volumes in the euro area increased by 0.5%, while in the European Union they increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month, August 2024. This increase reflects a recovery in business activity despite ongoing economic challenges in some European countries.
When comparing the results of September 2024 with August 2024, it is noted that retail trade growth was stronger in the previous month. In August 2024, the euro area recorded an increase of 1.1%, while in the European Union it recorded a growth of 0.9%. Nevertheless, the growth achieved in September 2024 remains positive and indicates a stabilization in the sector as a whole.
Looking back over the past year, the calendar-adjusted retail sales index in September 2024 increased by 2.9% in the euro area, while the EU recorded an increase of 2.8% compared to September 2023. This improvement reflects a continued strengthening in domestic consumption, despite the changing economic conditions.
This growth is expected to have positive effects on the European economy as a whole, as it contributes to improving confidence in the markets and strengthening the stability of domestic demand. However, despite this increase, some challenges remain for retail trade, including concerns about inflation and rising living costs in some countries.
Moreover, these data indicate some improvements in spending patterns, as expectations are increasing that markets will remain active in the last quarter of the year. As this increase in retail trade stabilizes, the positive results may be reflected in domestic production levels and employment opportunities in many economic sectors.
Evolution of retail trade in the euro area and the European Union in September 2024
In September 2024, compared to August 2024, retail trade in the euro area and the EU saw some notable changes. In the euro area, seasonally adjusted retail trade volume increased by 0.5%, while food, beverages and tobacco prices fell by 0.4%. Prices for non-food products (excluding motor fuel) increased by 1.1%, while prices for motor fuel in specialist stores rose by 0.2%. In the EU, retail trade volume increased less, rising by 0.3%. Prices for food, beverages and tobacco fell by 0.1%, while prices for non-food products (excluding motor fuel) increased by 0.9%.
On the other hand, prices for motor fuel in specialist stores rose by 0.4%. Looking at the EU Member States for which detailed data are available, Belgium, Denmark and Croatia recorded the largest monthly increases in total retail trade volume, each rising by 2.1%. Germany followed with an increase of 1.2%, while Austria and Slovakia recorded increases of 1.1% in both countries. On the other hand, Slovenia saw the largest decline in retail trade volume, down by 2.6%. Poland also recorded a decrease of 2.0%, followed by Finland with a decrease of 1.6%.
These changes reflect the diversity of economic performance across EU countries, which may be linked to local factors such as economic policies, changes in consumer demand, or even seasonal changes affecting the prices of goods and services.
In general, despite the variation in growth rates and declines in retail trade across Member States, the overall trend remains positive for most countries, reflecting a partial recovery in economic activity in the consumer sector. However, concerns about inflationary pressures, particularly in food and motor fuel prices, may continue to pose future challenges to the sustainability of this growth.
Retail trade developments in the euro area and the European Union in September 2024 compared to last year
In September 2024, retail trade in the euro area and the European Union saw some notable changes compared to the same month last year, September 2023. In the euro area, food, beverages and tobacco prices rose by 0.2%. Non-food products (excluding motor fuel) prices also increased by 5.3%. Motor fuel prices in specialist stores rose by 2.2%. In the EU, food, beverages and tobacco prices increased by 0.4%. Non-food products (excluding motor fuel) prices also increased by 5.0%.
Motor fuel prices in specialist stores increased by 1.6%. When looking at the year-on-year performance among the Member States for which detailed data are available, Luxembourg recorded the highest increase in retail trade volumes, with 13.1%, followed by Romania with 10.3%. Croatia also recorded a strong increase of 7.1%. In contrast, some countries recorded declines in retail volumes, with Estonia recording the largest decline of 4.4%, followed by Poland and Slovenia with declines of 3.0% each, while Finland recorded a decline of 2.1%.
These data show that markets in some European countries have seen a significant recovery in retail volumes, while others have faced economic challenges that have affected individual consumption. These differences in performance reflect varying local economic conditions and government policies, as well as the effects of inflation and energy prices that continue to affect markets.
Despite the differences in performance, high prices for some basic commodities such as food and motor fuel continue to put pressure on consumers in many countries. The significant rise in non-food prices also reflects the impact of inflation.
Overall, these developments suggest that retail trade in Europe is recording positive growth in some countries, while others are experiencing a significant decline in this sector. It will be important to monitor future trends to ensure continued growth in retail and to address economic challenges.
