In January 2025, retail trade volumes in the euro area and the EU fell slightly compared to the previous month, with a seasonally adjusted decline of 0.3% in the euro area and 0.2% in the EU. This decline comes after retail trade was stable in December 2024 in both the euro area and the EU. However, compared to the same month last year (January 2024), the retail sales index increased, rising by 1.5% in the euro area and 1.6% in the EU.
Sector and price differential analysis
Looking at the food, beverages and tobacco sector in the euro area, prices rose by 0.6% in January 2025 compared to December 2024, while prices for non-food products (excluding motor fuel) fell by 0.7%. On the other hand, prices for motor fuel in specialist stores fell by 0.3%. In the EU, food, beverages and tobacco prices increased by 0.3%, while non-food prices fell by 0.5%, and motor fuel prices in specialist stores fell by 0.2%.
Differences between Member States
Among EU Member States, Slovakia recorded the largest decrease in total monthly retail volume, down 9.0%. This was followed by Lithuania, which decreased by 4.8%, and Cyprus, which decreased by 2.2%. Slovenia recorded the largest increase, up 2.3%, followed by Hungary, which increased by 2.2%, and the Netherlands, which increased by 1.6%. This variation in results reflects the impact of domestic factors on retail trade in each country.
Year-on-year comparison in January 2025
Compared to the same month last year, food, beverages and tobacco prices in the euro area increased by 1.4% in January 2025. Non-food prices increased by 1.8%, while motor fuel prices rose by 0.1%. In the EU
Major increases and decreases between countries
Food and beverage prices rose by 1.0%, non-food prices increased by 2.4%. Prices of motor fuel in specialized stores increased by 0.1%.
Luxembourg recorded the highest annual increase in retail trade volume at 11.4%. Bulgaria also achieved an increase of 8.1%, followed by Portugal with 5.3%. In contrast, Finland was the biggest decliner at -0.4%, followed by Belgium and Italy, which recorded a decrease of -0.3% in the same month.
Review of previous data
Revised data for the previous months show that the monthly change for December 2024 is now 0.0% in the euro area, up from -0.2%, and 0.0% in the EU, up from -0.3%. The annual change for December 2024 is now +2.2% in the euro area, up from +1.9%, and +2.3% in the EU, up from +2.0%.
Retail trade volume index
The retail trade volume index measures the development of retail trade volumes, adjusting for price changes to capture the total quantity of goods sold. Analysts calculate the seasonally adjusted data series for the euro area and the EU by aggregating seasonally adjusted national data.
In this context, missing observations from member states are estimated when calculating the total retail trade volume for the euro area and the EU. This ensures that the data collected represents an accurate picture of retail trade developments in the region.
Future trends in retail trade
The data on retail trade volumes in January 2025 show that, despite a slight decline recorded on a monthly basis, the overall trend reflects a stable performance in some markets, while others are facing challenges due to local factors that may affect business activity. Experts expect European markets to experience fluctuations in retail trade volumes in the coming months, in line with seasonal changes.
Future challenges for EU retail
In light of these changes, it is advisable to follow the trends in the various EU member states to determine strategies that are in line with these changes and to make the most of the available opportunities.
The EU retail trade faces a set of challenges that may wish to stabilize and perform in the future. These challenges include many economic, social and environmental factors that affect the companies and commercial institutions that participate in them. The following are some of the notable challenges that may face the EU retail trade:
- The high cost of living Which will continue to be inflicted on the hands of Europeans due to the high cost of living, especially with regard to what is provided by basic supplies such as food and food industries. This may lead to a reduction in the health capacity of consumers, which negatively affects demand in the food market.
- It is reported that it represents an unreasonable challenge for European retail trade. Although some countries may witness a decrease in transfers and in recent months, it continues in the prices of goods and services, which may burden consumers, which may lead to a lack of growth in the budget.
- Which has led to consumers preferring better in recent times. There is a growing trend towards online shopping, which puts pressure on traditional businesses that rely on shopping. In addition, they have become more aware of social issues, which has led them to look for products that are more sustainable or in line with their values, which requires companies to challenge their struggle with these demands.
- Challenges and hope chains Supply chains in the food sector in the European Union continue to face difficulties, especially in light of global events such as the Corona virus.
