Retail sales are one of the most important economic indicators that reflect the general state of the economy. In Germany, preliminary data published by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) showed that retail sales in 2024 showed a significant increase compared to the previous year. Sales grew by 1.1% in real terms and 2.5% in nominal terms compared to 2023. These results are an indication of improved economic performance in the commercial sector despite the challenges faced by the markets in the previous period.
Retail sales in 2024 compared to 2023
2024, retail sales increased by different percentages according to the approved criteria. In real terms, which are adjusted for prices, an increase of 1.1% was recorded. In nominal terms.
which are not adjusted for inflation, they increased by 2.5%. The increase in real terms was slightly lower than the forecast announced in January 2025, when initial estimates were for an increase of around 1.3%. However, the latest analysis revises the estimates to reflect the increase in late registrations during the Christmas season.
Sales growth in the second half of the year
Although the first half of 2024 saw a slight decline in real retail sales growth (-0.5%), the second half of the year saw a significant improvement. Real sales increased by 2.6% compared to the same period in 2023. This improvement is partly explained by the increase in demand at the end of the year, especially in the Christmas season.
Retail sales compared to previous periods
When comparing retail sales in 2024 to the pre-coronavirus levels in 2019, a clear growth is evident. Retail sales were 2.3% higher in real terms and 22.8% higher in nominal terms. This significant increase in nominal terms is an indication of the improvement in purchasing power in Germany.
Major sectors in retail sales
Despite the overall growth in retail sales, different sectors saw varying shifts. The food retail sector was the most stable, with sales up 0.7% in real terms and 2.9% in nominal terms. In the first half of 2024, sales rose by 0.5%, while the second half saw a further increase of 0.8%. On the other hand, the non-food retail sector saw strong growth, with sales up 1.4% in real terms and 2.2% in nominal terms compared to the previous year. However, the first half of the year saw non-food retail sales decline by 1.0%, while the second half saw strong growth of 3.7%. E-commerce and mail order
E-commerce, including online and mail order, saw significant growth in 2024. Real sales rose by 5.0% compared to the previous year, reflecting the ongoing shift towards digital shopping. Although the first half of the year saw a decline in sales by 1.4%, the second half saw a significant recovery of 11.1%.
Christmas Business in December 2024
December 2024 sales, which coincided with the Christmas season, saw a significant increase in real sales by 1.8% compared to December 2023. Nominal sales also increased by 3.0%. The non-food retail sector benefited the most, with sales increasing by 3.4% in real terms. In contrast, food retail sales were down by 0.4% compared to the same month last year. These results show the strength of demand during the holiday season, which reflects a relatively stable economy despite the challenges that markets have experienced.
Seasonal and calendar differences
It is worth noting that the December 2024 retail sales report takes into account seasonal and calendar adjustments. As usual, sales increase significantly during the Christmas season, and the mathematical adjustments account for this. Compared to November 2024, retail sales in December decreased by 1.6% in real terms.
Preliminary results and future reviews
It is well known that preliminary retail sales results are often subject to subsequent revisions. These revisions are mainly due to adjustments made to companies’ reports, especially during the holiday season. These adjustments can significantly impact the final numbers published later. Therefore, experts update annual forecasts periodically, as they did in January 2025, when they adjusted the figures to account for delayed Christmas business registrations.
Structural impacts on e-commerce
It is well known that e-commerce is developing rapidly. In August 2024, a major Internet and mail-order company underwent a restructuring, which affected the time series of e-commerce sales. These adjustments were structural in nature, adding a long-term impact to the figures recorded in the second half of the year.
Methodological notes on economic data
It is important to note that economic reports use complex methodologies to adjust data. Seasonal and calendar-adjusted data are adjusted to enable more accurate comparisons between different periods. Economic monitoring also focuses on comparisons between seasonally and calendar-adjusted values compared to the previous month or quarter, which allows analysts to assess economic trends more accurately.
The results of German retail sales for 2024 may show an optimistic picture for the German economy in the face of difficult economic conditions. Although growth in the first half of the year was slow in some sectors, the recovery in the second half of the year, especially in the Christmas season, reflects the market’s ability to recover and grow. The ongoing transformations in e-commerce and the retail sector will likely drive further shifts in consumption patterns in the coming years.