Retail Survey: Q3 2024: The Retail Survey provides important insights into the performance of the retail sector, which includes businesses that provide household and personal goods and services, including supermarkets, cafes and petrol stations. The survey aims to track trends in sales and inventory, helping to understand changes in this vital sector.
Significant decline in sales volumes: The third quarter of 2024 saw a decline in sales volumes in 11 of the 15 industries studied, according to the survey indicators. Despite this overall decline, the rate of change varied between different industries.
Performance analysis by industry:Electrical and electronic goods retail: This category recorded a significant decline of 6.0% in sales volumes. This decline is the sharpest compared to the other categories, and may be related to changes in demand or technological changes that have affected this industry.
Supermarkets and grocery stores: Despite the decline in most sectors, supermarkets and grocery stores saw a 2.1% increase in sales volumes. This increase may be due to changes in consumer behavior and increased demand for essential goods.
Automotive and parts retail: Sales fell by 2.7%, possibly reflecting a decline in purchases of new vehicles or spare parts. This decline may be due to fluctuations in fuel prices.
Pharmaceutical and other retail: Sales rose by 3.2%, indicating continued strong demand for pharmaceuticals and other health products. This increase may be related to increased health awareness or the availability of new products in the market.
Food and beverage services: This category saw a 1.9% decline in sales volume. This may reflect a decline in spending on eating out.
Data from the Retail Survey for Q3 2024 shows a marked variation in the performance of different industries. While there remains a general decline in sales volume, some sectors indicate an increase in demand.
Sales volume decline and future trends
Current economic conditions require companies in the retail sector to remain flexible and adapt to changes in the market. It is important to monitor and analyze sales developments periodically to determine the most appropriate strategies that meet customer needs and achieve business objectives.
Decline in sales volume: Total seasonally adjusted retail sales volume in Q2 2024 amounted to approximately $24 billion, recording a decrease of 1.2% compared to Q1. The total value of seasonally adjusted retail sales reached $30 billion, with a decrease of 1.3% ($379 million). These figures indicate a continued decline in business activity in the retail sector, which may be related to economic pressures or changes in consumer behavior.
Regional performance: Most regions were affected by this decline, with 14 out of 16 regions recording lower seasonally adjusted sales values. These figures reflect a general decline in business activity across most parts of the country, indicating that the economic situation is not limited to specific regions only, but extends to the majority of regions.
Physical Retail Sales: Looking at the physical values of retail sales, they were $29 billion in Q2 2024, down 1.6% ($471 million) compared to Q1 2024. These figures reflect a decrease in actual consumer spending, which may be due to higher prices or weaker demand.
Inventory Changes: Total physical inventory as of June 30, 2024 was $9.2 billion, down 2.1% ($197 million) compared to June 30, 2023. This decrease in inventory indicates that companies are reducing inventory levels, which may be due to lower demand or revised sourcing strategies.
Technical Details and Decline in Sales Value by Industry
It should be noted that the actual values shown are at current prices and are not adjusted for inflation or price effects. Typical seasonal patterns have also been removed from the seasonally adjusted values, and price changes in volumes have been excluded, reflecting changes based only on volumes without price effects.
The available data reflects a general decline in retail activity, both in terms of sales and inventory. The figures indicate a decline in performance across most regions, which may indicate broader economic challenges.
Future trends: Going forward, it is important for companies in the retail sector to continue to monitor changes in the market and adapt their strategies according to changing economic conditions. Potential strategies may include improving inventory management, adapting marketing strategies, to keep pace with changes in demand.
Sales value decline by industry: 11 out of 15 industries recorded a decline in seasonally adjusted sales value in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of the year. Including price effects, the most notable movements were as follows:
Automotive and parts retail: This category saw a decline of 4.0%, equivalent to $155 million. This decline reflects weaker demand for motor vehicles and parts, possibly due to volatility in the motor vehicle market or increased maintenance costs.
Accommodation: Decreased 6.0%, or $83 million. This decrease may have been due to a decline in visitor numbers or changes in consumer spending on accommodation.
Fuel Retail: Sales decreased 2.3%, or $58 million. This decrease may have reflected lower fuel consumption or changes in fuel prices.
Supermarkets and Grocery: Increased 1.5%, or $99 million. Despite the overall decline in sales, this category benefited from increased demand for essential goods.
Drug and other retail: Increased 2.6%, or $52 million. This increase reflects continued demand for pharmaceuticals and other health products.
Regional Variation
Fourteen of the 16 regions reported a decline in seasonally adjusted sales value. The most notable regional movements were as follows:
Auckland: Decreased 1.6%, or $184 million. This decline may be related to reduced spending in the country’s largest city.
Canterbury: Down 2.5%, or $100 million. This decline may reflect local economic challenges affecting sales volumes in this region.
Waikato: Down 3.0%, or $84 million. This decline indicates ongoing economic pressures in the region.
Otago: Down 3.3%, or $56 million. This decline may be due to reduced business activity or changes in spending patterns.
Wellington: Down 1.3%, or $36 million. This decline reflects a slight decline in sales in the capital. Stock values and inventory figures are as at 30 June 2024. All references to inventories are in actual dollars.
Total value of shares held at June 30, 2024 was $9.2 billion, down 2.1 percent ($197 million) from June 30, 2023. By industry, the largest movements were: Hardware, Building & Garden Supplies – down 8.1 percent ($122 million) and Recreational Goods Retail – down 5.2 percent ($34 million).
