The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following advanced statistics for international trade, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories for November 2024:
Progress of international trade in goods
The international trade deficit reached $102.9 billion in November, up $4.6 billion from $98.3 billion in October. Commodity exports for November were $176.4 billion, up $7.4 billion from October’s exports. Imports of goods for November were $279.2 billion, $12.0 billion more than October imports.
Pre-bulk stocks
Wholesale inventories for November, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences.
but not according to price changes, were estimated at the month-end level of $901.6 billion, down 0.2 percent (± 0.4 percent)* from October 2024, and up 0.9 percent (± 0.5 percent) from November 2023. The relative change from September 2024 to October 2024 revised from an increase of 0.2 percent (± 0.4 percent) to an increase of 0.1 percent (± 0.4 percent).
Retail Advance Stocks
November’s retail inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, totaled $827.5 billion at the month-end level. This figure represents a 0.3 percent increase (± 0.2 percent) from October 2024 and a 7.2 percent increase (± 0.7 percent) from November 2023. The percentage change from September 2024 to October 2024 remained unchanged from the initial estimate, showing a 0.2 percent increase (± 0.2 percent).
In general, the price paid for goods for export to the United States. Duties, freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in bringing goods into the U.S. are excluded
For more information on data exchange and replacement, please refer to Form FT-900. The value of general imports reflects the total arrival of goods from foreign countries that immediately enter consumption channels, warehouses, or foreign trade zones.
The impact of CARM accounting on Canada and US exports 2024
Importers in Canada have experienced delays in delivering shipments. The data exchange between the United States and Canada affects U.S. exports of goods to Canada in the Advance Economic Indicators Reports for September, October, and November 2024.
as well as in the international trade in goods and services for the United States. This month’s late receipt estimate will include a dollar estimate of arrears. Following the usual practice for late receipt estimates.
we will categorize this under the End Use category for other goods in addition to total exports to Canada. The actual transactions, reported by the Harmonized Classification System, will replace this estimate in our annual revisions in June 2025.
Commodity data is compiled on a census basis from documents collected by U.S. Customs and Border Protection and reflects the movement of goods between foreign countries, the fifty states, the Columbia District, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and U.S. foreign trade zones. It includes shipments of governmental and non-governmental goods and excludes shipments between the United States and its territories and property.
Main factors affecting the fluctuations of US wholesale primary inventories per month
Several factors can affect wholesale inventories and cause fluctuations from month to month. These factors are related to various aspects of the economy, business processes, and supply chains. Here is a breakdown of the main factors affecting inventories:
- Consumer demand
Increased demand: When consumer demand for goods rises, wholesalers may need to provide more products to retailers, reducing their inventories.
Lower demand: If demand falls, wholesalers may experience slower sales and end up having excess inventory, causing inventory levels to rise.
- Production rates
Overproduction: When manufacturers produce more than required, it can lead to high inventory levels at wholesalers, as they are unable to sell products quickly.
Production shortages: If production limits (due to supply chain issues, labor shortages, or other factors), wholesale inventories may decrease as fewer goods become available for storage.
- Supply Chain Disorders
– Transportation issues: Delays in shipping, shipping or other logistical issues can cause stock accumulation (if goods cannot be distributed) or shortages (if goods cannot arrive on time).
Shortage of raw materials: If suppliers have difficulty providing raw materials for manufacturing, production may slow down, leading to lower stock levels.
Global trade factors: Tariffs, trade wars, or changes in trade policies can affect the flow of goods, affecting inventory levels.
- Interest Rates and Financing Costs
– Higher interest rates increase the cost of holding inventories, as companies may need to borrow more to finance larger inventories. This could incentivize companies to keep fewer inventories.
Low interest rates make it cheaper to finance and hold inventories.
so companies may be more willing to hold larger inventories. All of these factors contribute to the monthly fluctuations we see in the aggregate final inventory data monthly.
