Financial markets are awaiting the American job report for the month of November, the report is expected to reveal a recovery in the labor market after the “Helen” and “Milton” hurricane effects, in addition to the Boeing workers’ strike that affected the October report.
According to analysts from Interesting, Saudi Arabia, the US economy is expected to add 202,000 non -agricultural jobs in November.
which represents a remarkable improvement compared to October. In that month, the American economy only added 12,000 jobs due to factors that obstructed economic activity, including strikes and climatic conditions.
It is important to note that expectations indicate that the unemployment rate may rise to 4.2% in November, after it remained fixed at 4.1% in October for the second month in a row. Despite this slight rise in unemployment.
the expected increase in jobs is evidence of the American economy recovery from the effects of natural disasters and strikes.
The effect of data on future expectations
Labor market data is a decisive factory in defining interest policies for the American Federal Bank. If the November report shows a strong recovery in employment, this may increase expectations that the Federal Bank will continue to raise interest rates to face inflation. On the other hand, if the data is disappointing, this may lead to a decline in these expectations.
as the Federal Bank prefers to support the economy in such cases.
Previous data showed fluctuation in the American labor market due to emergency events. This makes the November report of great importance.
as it is seen as an opportunity to determine the direction of monetary policy for the coming period. Based on the performance of the labor market in November, the Federal Bank may restore its strategy to raise interest rates.
The effect of hurricanes and strikes on the American labor market
In October 2024, the United States witnessed a remarkable slowdown in the growth of jobs due to the “Helen” and “Milton” hurricane effects.
in addition to the Boeing workers’ strike. According to a report from Goldman Sachs, economists expected a recovery after these effects. They indicated in a memo to their customers that hurricanes have caused the loss of 70,000 jobs in the affected areas. Over time, the situation began to improve, as the effect of hurricanes gradually faded by early November.
Other economists have also expected that the end of labor strikes.
including the Boeing Company’s strike, will add 37,500 new jobs to the labor market.
Data awaited by markets
Financial markets are awaiting some of the main numbers that will affect the path of monetary policy in the United States. the following numbers will be closely followed up:
Non -agricultural jobs: The US economy is expected to add 202,000 non -agricultural jobs in November 2024.
compared to only 12,000 jobs in the previous month.
The unemployment rate: The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.2% in November, compared to 4.1% in October.
Average clock on a monthly basis: The monthly wage is expected to increase by 0.3%.
compared to an increase of 0.4% in October.
The average hourly wage on an annual basis: The annual wage is expected to increase by 3.9%, which is a slight decrease from 4.0% in the previous month.
The effect of this data on the economy
This data reflects an improvement in the American labor market.
which may enhance expectations with greater recovery in the economy after the negative effects of hurricanes and strikes. Also, this improvement in data may increase expectations that the American Federal Bank may continue to raise interest rates to face inflation.
American labor market indicators: future analysis and prospects
Although the labor market slows down in the United States, recent indicators indicate that the situation does not show a rapid deterioration. According to the data of the work statistics office, there were 7.74 million vacant job opportunities at the end of October, compared to 7.37 million in September.
which is the lowest level recorded since January 2021. This slight increase in the number of vacancies indicates that the American economy still maintains the ability Growth.
The rate of leaving voluntary work
Another indication of the current situation of the labor market is the “Quits Rate”.
which reflects the extent of workers’ confidence in the labor market. In October, this rate rose to 2.1% compared to 1.9% in September, the first increase since May 2023. This increase may indicate that workers feel the ability to change their jobs in search of better opportunities.
which reflects the increase in confidence in the economy.
Private sector data
ADP data, published on Wednesday, shows that the private sector added 146,000 jobs in November.
which is less than 184,000 jobs added in October. While these numbers show a slowdown in job growth.
the increase in wages shows that the labor market is still relatively strong. For example, the annual wages of workers who changed their jobs increased to 7.2% in November, compared to 6.7% in October. This increase indicates that the demand for employment is still high, especially for those who move between jobs.
Federal Reserve Chief Statements
At the Dealbook summit organized by the New York Times, Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell spoke about the American economic situation. “The American economy is in a very good position” and that the negative risks in the labor market are less than expected. He also added that economic growth is stronger than expected.
Future expectations for interest
Despite these optimistic statements from Powell, the markets are still affected by the expectations of reducing interest rates at the Federal Reserve meeting in December. According to the interest -monitoring tool on the Saudi Investteng platform.
the markets are currently 70% possibility to reduce interest rates in December. It is worth noting that investors do not expect the job report to affect.
if it comes in line with expectations, significantly on the upcoming monetary policy decisions.
