Ethereum appears to be trying to build a base around the $1,800 level, but its trajectory is still closely correlated with broader market trends. While this region has shown some signs of stabilization, it’s important to note that Ethereum’s relative weakness relative to Bitcoin remains evident – and a quick look at the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio illustrates this.
This poor performance reinforces our view that any near recovery of Ethereum is likely to be modest and short-lived, unless the entire cryptocurrency market enters a more decisive bullish phase. Currently, Ethereum is more of a follower than a leader, as Bitcoin sets its course. The main levels are still clearly defined. There is immediate resistance around the psychologically significant 2000 USD, while support is soon in the range of 1750-1800 USD. These areas will be crucial in the coming sessions, especially with influential US economic data expected later in the day.
With macroeconomic conditions volatile and traders worried, news from the US could make sharp moves across the board. Due to its extreme sensitivity to shifts in market sentiment, Ethereum is likely to reflect the trend Bitcoin is charting and the broader narrative about risk.
For now, we remain cautious about Ethereum’s short-term outlook, but we are closely watching macroeconomic factors that may reset the entire cryptocurrency market.
The main technical levels remain largely unchanged. On the downside, the levels of 82,000 USD and 78,000 USD remain strong support areas, while the resistance levels are currently around 85,500 USD and 89,000 USD. These levels will be critical for monitoring as the market absorbs incoming data and re-evaluates its forecast.
Despite the short-term uncertainty and market anticipation, our medium- and long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains strongly positive.
Ethereum investors benefit from Ethereum price approaching 17-month low
Ethereum faces resistance at $1,862; a breach of this level could push it towards $2,000, but failure to maintain support at $1,745 could lead to further declines.
ETH has had a challenging month and a half, with its price approaching a 17-month low of $1,802 at the time of writing. Despite this ongoing downtrend, which almost pushed Ethereum into a bear market, major investors remained optimistic.
With Ethereum approaching these important levels, many market participants believe that a rebound in price may be imminent.
Ethereum’s supply on exchanges fell to a six-month low, suggesting that investors are increasingly reluctant to invest in their assets. This decline in stock market supply is often seen as a bullish sign because it indicates that long-term equity holders (LTHs) are accumulating more Ethereum at these lower price levels, expecting a price rise in the future.
These investors are unwilling to sell, demonstrating a firm conviction of Ethereum’s long-term value. Lower exchange balances also indicate a decrease in short-term trading activity. This suggests that many investors are waiting for the price to rebound before taking any steps.
Over the past month, the Ethereum Vitality Index has fallen, citing easing selling pressure. This indicator measures investor activity over the long term, and a decline generally refers to the accumulation of investments rather than selling.
The decline reflects growing sentiment among long-term Ethereum investors, who are increasing their holdings and expecting the price to recover in the future. The decline in vitality suggests that many are confident in Ethereum fundamentals and less worried about short-term volatility.
Ethereum under pressure as downtrend continues
Ethereum remains under pressure, as the market generally struggles to turn higher. The price continues to fluctuate around key demand areas, with little indication of immediate strength on the bulls’ part, while derivatives and trading activity on supply chains show signs of caution.
On the daily timeframe, Ethereum failed to recover above the previous support level that turned into resistance near $2,000. Daily structure remains bearish, and supply zone rejection between $2,200-$2,000 has intensified selling pressure.
The two-hundred-day moving average, currently above $2,800, confirms the overall bearish bias, while the RSI remains in the oversold zone, suggesting that bearish momentum is still present but may weaken. The next strong support is near the $1550 zone, which you are likely to reach soon.
Looking at the four-hour chart, Ethereum formed a coherent horizontal pattern, with its lower highs compressed at the horizontal support near $1,750. The asset recently retested the $1,900 area, but quickly refused, failing to make any bullish breakout.
The RSI also retreated from its previous rebound, suggesting weakening momentum. A confirmed breakdown below the $1,750 support level is likely to lead to further decline, while a close above this pattern will be the first sign of short-term strength.
From the perspective of market sentiment and open attention centers, Ethereum’s open attention centers have remained high compared to their historical values in recent years, even as the price continues to fall.
This indicates an influx of heavy short positions or the use of lagging leverage in the market. If these open positions fall quickly, they could put short positions on any bullish fluctuations. However, as long as it remains high during the price drop, it increases the pressure and risk of continued liquidations, especially near key support areas.
