Bitcoin prices rose on Thursday, driven by improved investor sentiment amid optimism surrounding US-Japan trade talks. At 9:20 a.m. ET, the cryptocurrency was up 1% at $84,621, after falling to around $83,000 on Wednesday.
Improving Market Sentiment
Positive signals from the US-Japan trade talks have boosted investor risk appetite. US President Donald Trump noted “significant progress” in these talks, increasing optimism that broader trade agreements can be reached. This improvement in trade relations could reduce global economic uncertainty, pushing investors toward alternative assets like Bitcoin.
Federal Reserve Stance
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank will maintain interest rates, awaiting further clarity on the impact of tariffs on the economy. Powell warned that tariffs could lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth, increasing the challenges facing the bank in achieving its dual goals.
Trump Criticizes Powell
President Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates, calling the bank’s reports a “complete disaster.” Trump called for Powell’s dismissal, noting that the European Central Bank is planning to cut rates, while the Federal Reserve remains hesitant.
Altcoin Performance
Altcoins rose on Thursday, tracking Bitcoin’s gains. Ethereum rose 1.7% to $1,595.16, while XRP rose 1.7% to $2.1035. Solana also saw gains of 6.8%, Cardano rose 2.9%, and Polygon gained 0.6%. Among meme coins, Dogecoin jumped 2.5%. While US-Japan trade talks offer some hope, monetary policy and inflationary pressures remain crucial factors in determining future market trends.
Despite the current gains, markets still face challenges. Reports indicate that the market may stabilize by mid-to-late Q2 2025, paving the way for a potential recovery in Q3. Bitcoin’s recent movements reflect the market’s reaction to geopolitical and economic developments.
Stability from long-term coin holders
In contrast, long-term Bitcoin holders, those who have held the currency for more than 155 days, remain largely stable. CryptoQuant analysis shows that these investors have not been significantly involved in the recent sell-off, indicating their confidence in Bitcoin’s future value.
Limited Influence from Institutional Investors
Meanwhile, institutional investors, or “whales,” have not shown significant market activity during this decline. Data from Coinbase indicates that the gap between prices on US and global exchanges has not widened significantly, indicating that these entities have not exploited the current decline to increase their holdings.
Technical Analysis: Death Cross Looms
Technically, the “death cross” indicator is approaching, as the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. This indicator is considered a strong sell signal and, if realized, could lead to further price declines.
Altcoins Show Mixed Performance
While Bitcoin has declined, some altcoins have shown mixed performance. For example, Solana rose by 6.8%, while Cardano rose by 2.9%. This suggests that some investors may be turning to altcoins in search of better opportunities.
Is this a correction or the beginning of a long-term decline?
Under these circumstances, the question remains: does this decline represent a temporary correction or the beginning of a long-term downtrend? Current data suggests that the market is in a correction phase, driven by selling by short-term holders. However, the stability of long-term holders and the lack of intervention by institutional investors indicates confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals.
With continued volatility, investors should closely monitor the market, paying attention to technical indicators and the behavior of large investors, to determine Bitcoin’s future direction.
Bitcoin fluctuates below $85,000: Temporary correction or the beginning of a downtrend?
Bitcoin recently fell below $85,000, raising questions about whether this decline represents a temporary correction or the beginning of a longer-term downtrend.
Pressure from Short-Term Holders
Data from CryptoQuant shows that short-term Bitcoin holders, those who held the currency for less than 155 days, have moved large amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges. On February 25, approximately 79,300 Bitcoin, worth nearly $7 billion, were transferred to exchange wallets within 24 hours, marking the largest selloff in 2025 so far.
This behavior suggests panic among short-term investors, who are rushing to sell their holdings to avoid further losses.
The cryptocurrency market witnessed significant movements in April 2025, with large amounts of Bitcoin being withdrawn from exchanges, raising questions about the intentions of whales and their impact on prices.
Whale Withdrawals: An Indicator of a Trend Change?
On April 17, data from OnchainDataNerd showed that major institutions such as Galaxy Digital and Abraxas Capital withdrew more than $280 million worth of Bitcoin from major exchanges. These moves are a sign that large investors may be anticipating a price increase, prompting them to store Bitcoin away from exchanges.
Despite these withdrawals, Bitcoin has failed to break the $86,000 barrier, indicating market hesitation. This is attributed to multiple factors, including fluctuating investor confidence and geopolitical tensions. Price Predictions: Multiple Scenarios
Bitwise predicts Bitcoin will reach over $200,000 in 2025, with the potential to reach $500,000 if the US government adopts a strategic reserve of Bitcoin. Investopedia
Standard Chartered predicts the price will reach $200,000, supported by continued inflows into ETFs. CoinMarketCap
VanEck predicts the price will reach $180,000, warning of significant volatility. Investopedia
Influencing Factors: What Drives the Market?
Bitcoin prices are influenced by several factors, including:
Monetary Policy: Federal Reserve interest rate decisions affect investors’ appetite for risk.
Geopolitical Tensions: Trade conflicts and sanctions lead to market volatility.
Institutional Adoption: Demand for Bitcoin is increasing as major financial institutions enter the market.
